Price trend

In October, the spot price of ferrosilicon initially fell before rising. After the holiday, market demand was weaker than expected, and accumulated inventory at some silicon plants during the holiday period put downward pressure on the overall market. Industry confidence was somewhat lacking, leading to a decrease in actual transaction prices. In mid-October, steel tenders began, slightly releasing market demand. Furthermore, the traditional peak season for industry demand was not yet over, and news of an increase in semi-coke prices strengthened support, resulting in widespread price increases in the market. According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, on October 30th, the market price of ferrosilicon (grade: FeSi75～B; particle size/mm: natural lumps) in Ningxia was 5,200-5,350 RMB/ton, with an average market price of 5,227 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.27% compared to before the holiday.

Influencing factors

Raw materials 

Semi-coke: Since the beginning of October, the price of lump coal, the raw material, continued to strengthen, and the supply situation in major producing areas was tight, providing strong support for semi-coke prices. Enterprises in major producing areas generally had low inventory levels. Most semi-coke enterprises in Shenmu and Fugu, Shaanxi Province, were maintaining low inventory levels, and some had suspended production for maintenance before the heating season. According to feedback from downstream semi-coke enterprises, insufficient raw material arrivals were common, especially for spot purchases outside of fixed contracts. On October 23, major calcium carbide purchasing enterprises in Inner Mongolia raised the price of semi-coke raw materials by 50 RMB/ton to 740 RMB/ton, all ex-factory prices including tax and acceptance, effective from October 24 upon delivery.

Supply and demand

In the first nine months of 2025, China's total ferrosilicon output reached 4.1191 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1% (compared to 4.064 million tons in the same period of 2024). In October, the national weekly supply of ferrosilicon remained above 110,000 tons, with monthly output estimated at around 490,000 tons, generally higher than the same period last year; ferrosilicon production remained at a high level. Recent news indicated that a major plant in Gansu had reduced production of one 33,000 kVA, two 25,000 kVA, and two 12,500 kVA ferrosilicon furnaces, which is expected to affect daily ferrosilicon output by approximately 340 tons. However, as of October 30, the supply side was in a relaxed state.

Steel bidding situation

In October, Hebei Iron & Steel's tender price for 75B ferrosilicon was 5,660 RMB/ton, a decrease of 140 RMB/ton from the previous round of pricing. The inquiry price was 5,600 RMB/ton, compared to 5,800 RMB/ton in September. The main downstream sectors for ferrosilicon were in a generally weak state, with pessimistic sentiment. Steel mills, which previously provided the biggest support, had also shown signs of weakening recently, making it difficult to determine a turning point. Steel procurement in November had not yet commenced on a large scale, market concerns were rising, and traders' purchasing enthusiasm had weakened. Some were turning to futures market pricing or purchasing mainly on an as-needed basis.

Import and export data

Weak overseas demand and falling prices had reduced export support. In September 2025, China's exports of ferrosilicon (Si≤55%) totaled 1,387.782 tons, down 16.02% month-on-month and 30.32% year-on-year, with an export value of US$1,975,791, down 20.04% month-on-month and up 8.04% year-on-year. From January to September, China's total exports of ferrosilicon (Si≤55%) reached 18,138.567 tons, up 2.16% year-on-year, with a total export value of US$23,578,779, down 15.06% year-on-year.

In September 2025, China's imports of ferrosilicon (Si≤55%) reached 82.5 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1093.58% and a year-on-year increase of 764.15%, with an import value of US$70,970, a month-on-month increase of 77.13% and a year-on-year increase of 61.18%. From January to September, China's total imports of ferrosilicon (Si≤55%) reached 325.889 tons, a year-on-year increase of 122.05%, with a total import value of US$586,918, a year-on-year increase of 6.48%.

Market outlook

Ferrosilicon production remained high, while market demand was slowing, putting pressure on the domestic market. The market was only supported by immediate needs, making it difficult to resolve the underlying contradictions. Regarding raw material semi-coke, supply was limited due to plant maintenance shutdowns, making short-term price reductions difficult. Meanwhile, considering that raw coal prices are supported by winter electricity demand, which may benefit costs to some extent, electricity prices are expected to remain relatively stable. For example, some customers in Ningxia believe that the October settlement electricity price will decrease by 0.5-1 fen under spot trading conditions. With all negative factors present, the domestic ferrosilicon spot market is expected to remain weak in November.

If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.