Price trend

September saw a steady stream of positive news, with prices surging significantly and boosting industry confidence. Coupled with relatively solid cost support, the expected release of overall demand during the traditional peak season for steel production, and the expected release of overall demand, ferrosilicon performed well overall in September. According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, on September 26, ferrosilicon (grade: FeSi75-B; particle size/mm: natural lump) was quoted in the Ningxia region between 5,300 and 5,450 RMB/ton, with an average price of 5,325 RMB/ton, up 2.28% from the beginning of the month.

Influencing Factors

Raw Materials

Semi-coke: The semi-coke market was stronger this month. With the raw material lump coal showing stronger performance and tight market supply, the semi-coke market had seen two rounds of price increases. As of September 26, the market price for medium-sized semi-coke was RMB 730/ton, while that for small-sized semi-coke is RMB 690/ton. As of September 25, the starting price for Shaanxi Coal's mainstream large-scale lump coal, the semi-coke raw material, was RMB 650/ton, up RMB 20/ton from the previous month. The average transaction price was RMB 676.81/ton, up RMB 15.64/ton from the previous month. The lowest auction price was RMB 671/ton, up RMB 25/ton from the previous month, and the highest price was RMB 693/ton, up RMB 20/ton from the previous month. This indicated that the cost of semi-coke remains strong. It is expected that the lignite market will still have a positive sentiment in early October, with obvious cost support for coal prices. With the arrival of winter, the structural shortage of lump coal will be obvious, which will strengthen the cost support for lignite. At the same time, the enthusiasm of lignite companies to start work remained low, and there is little room for significant improvement in winter. As the tight balance between supply and demand continues, the lignite market will maintain stable operation after a surge.

Supply and Demand

As of September 25th, the national capacity utilization rate was 35.33%, a 0.49% increase from the previous month; the average daily output was 16,355 tons, a 1.27% increase from the previous month. Steel mills enjoyed healthy profits, and with the upcoming National Day holiday, demand is expected to weaken temporarily. Therefore, steel production is expected to remain stable in the short term, with limited room for further growth.

Bidding Status

Downstream steel mills had largely concluded their centralized September procurement, but with the National Day holiday approaching, some mills were stockpiling inventory before the holiday. A steel mill in East China had finalized its new round of ferrosilicon bidding at 5,898 RMB/ton, a 78 RMB/ton increase from the previous round, for a purchase quantity of 400 tons. Another steel mill in East China had launched its October ferrosilicon bidding, with a purchase quantity of 1,500 tons.

Import and Export

Overseas consumption was slightly skewed, and export advantages were not significant. In August 2025, China's exports of ferrosilicon with a silicon content greater than 55% reached 33,358.942 tons (including 17,145.942 tons for general trade and 16,213 tons for logistics cargo in areas under special customs supervision), a decrease of 957.057 tons from July, a month-on-month decrease of 2.79%.

Market outlook

The demand for ferrosilicon lacked stability in the rising demand for finished products. The peak demand season of September and October remains to be verified. There is little room for steel prices to rebound, and steel mills' profits may not have a big breakthrough. It can be inferred that steel mills will still adopt a low inventory strategy for raw material procurement. Most manufacturers that purchase ferrosilicon on demand are in a loss-making state. Some manufacturers continued to maintain a high price-supporting mentality. As the National Day approaching and the October bidding is imminent, the downstream demand is expected to improve. The cost of ferrosilicon also has certain support for spot prices. It is expected that ferrosilicon will remain stable in the short term after the holiday.

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