According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic MTBE market fluctuated and declined in October. From October 1st to 31st, MTBE prices fell from 5,042 RMB/ton to 4,920 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 2.43% during the period, a maximum amplitude of 5.37%, and a year-on-year price drop of 7.61%.

After entering October, the domestic MTBE market showed a fluctuating downward trend. In the first half of the year, there was still favorable support for travel during the National Day holiday. However, in the second half of the year, with the end of the National Day holiday, gasoline demand entered the off-season, and MTBE manufacturers resumed production one after another. The increase in resource supply increased the pressure on manufacturers to ship, coupled with weak gasoline demand and multiple negative factors, the MTBE market fluctuated downward.

On the cost side, international crude oil prices showed a downward trend in October. In the first half of the year, OPEC+ continued to increase production, and the situation between Palestine and Israel continued to ease. Coupled with the possibility of new risks posed by US tariffs, international oil prices fell. In mid month, the market was concerned about the risk of oversupply, and the trade dispute triggered by the United States suppressed the demand outlook, causing international oil prices to continue to fall. In the latter half of the year, the United States imposed new sanctions on Russian oil companies, raising market concerns about potential supply risks and leading to an increase in international oil prices.

On the demand side, in terms of gasoline terminal demand, as the weather continues to cool down and the frequency of business trips decreases, it is difficult to have substantial positive effects on gasoline raw material procurement or maintaining essential demand. The MTBE demand side is affected by bearish factors.

On the supply side, the new dehydrogenation unit of Sanjiang Petrochemical started construction within the month. Heilongjiang Xinrui, Yuhuang Shengrong, Shandong Chengtai, and Dongfang Hongye successively started construction. At the end of the month, the Wanhua and Huangshi Tianyuan units in Yantai started construction, and the Lihua Yi and Xinxinyuan units underwent maintenance within the month, resulting in an overall increase in resource supply. The overall domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.

As of the close on October 30th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by $3.69/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $660.01-662.01 per ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $7.5/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $887.24-887.74/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by 0.68 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at 849.85-850.20 US dollars/ton (239.96-240.06 US cents/gallon).

There is an expectation of an increase in resource supply in the future market forecast. The export volume of MTBE in November may decrease compared to October, which to some extent exacerbates the pressure of oversupply. The MTBE analyst from SunSirs believes that the domestic MTBE market may operate weakly.

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