According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from October 20th to 24th, the price of MTBE first fell and then rose from 4,912 RMB/ton to 4,930 RMB/ton, with a slight increase of 0.36% during the period, a month on month decrease of 2.95%, and a year-on-year decrease of 10.57%. The domestic MTBE market is weak and consolidating, and the international crude oil trend is not good. In addition, some previously shut down manufacturers have started production one after another, further increasing resource supply. The weak demand for gasoline terminals has prompted manufacturers to offer discounts to promote shipments. After the price was lowered to a low point, it stimulated the enthusiasm of industry players to purchase, and the transaction atmosphere began to improve.
In terms of costs and crude oil: the main positive factors for the rise of international oil prices are: the United States increased sanctions against Russia, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict continued to stick together, with a trend of further intensification. The easing of market concerns over trade disputes and the decline in US commercial crude oil inventories have provided support for oil prices. As of October 23rd, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for the December contract was $65.99 per barrel.
In terms of demand and downstream gasoline, the weak performance of crude oil has affected the oil market, and the bearish atmosphere in the oil market has intensified. Refineries have lowered oil prices one after another, and market trading has been flat. The MTBE demand side is affected by bearish factors.
Supply side: Yuhuang Shengrong, Shandong Chengtai, and Dongfang Hongye's facilities have started construction, while Hebei Xinxinyuan's facility has undergone maintenance, resulting in an increase in facility operating rates.
As of the close on October 23rd, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by $22.92 per ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $657.03-659.03 per ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by $27.75/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $890.9-891.49/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $21.92 per ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $858.45-858.81 per ton (242.39-242.49 cents per gallon).
The future forecast shows that the current resource supply is relatively abundant, while the positive boost from gasoline demand is insufficient. The MTBE analyst from SunSirs believes that the domestic MTBE market is mainly stagnant and consolidating.
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