Since 2024, there has been a significant disagreement in the global major mineral product prices, showing a differentiated trend.

01 Traditional energy mineral prices are under pressure to decline

Data from the World Bank shows that the energy price index in 2024 was 101.5, a decrease of 5.1% from the previous year. Due to factors such as geopolitical issues, the production cut policy of OPEC+, and other factors, the prices of energy mineral products generally increased and then decreased, with some differentiation. Coal "slid down the slide" with the largest decline. In 2024, global media production, demand, and trade volume all reached historical highs, global coal supply was sufficient, and coal prices fell by 7.4% within the year; oil prices also showed a downward trend. In 2024, "OPEC+" continued the voluntary production cut plan, while non-"OPEC+" countries, led by the United States, continued to increase crude oil production, increasing by 15 million barrels per day compared to 2023, leading to an increase in global energy supply. The price of Brent crude oil fluctuated and fell in 2024, with the price within the year falling by 1.7%; however, the price of natural gas increased instead of decreasing. Due to geopolitical risks, the fundamentals of natural gas supply and demand tightened, supporting the rise in natural gas prices. At the end of 2024, the futures price of natural gas in the UK increased by 48.8% year-on-year.

02 Spot commodity prices fluctuate more, iron ore falls, copper, aluminum, zinc prices rise

In 2024, the iron ore price showed a downward trend, with the price center of gravity shifting downward. The average price in 2024 decreased by 8.5% compared to 2023, and the MB Iron Ore Price Index fell by 30.2% throughout the year. In 2024, copper prices surged and then declined, with increased volatility. The price difference for the year reached a high of $2,771.5 per ton, and the average price in 2024 increased by 7.9% year-on-year; overall, it continued the upward trend of 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. In 2024, aluminum prices fluctuated at a high level, with an annual increase of 7.7%, mainly supported by factors such as improved demand, Federal Reserve rate cuts, and unstable bauxite supply. In 2024, zinc prices showed a strong upward trend, with an annual increase of 14.1%. On the one hand, it was affected by the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and the strengthening of domestic policies, which turned the macro sentiment positive; on the other hand, the continuous tight supply of zinc mines and the imbalance between supply and demand supported the rise in prices.

03 Precious metal prices are strong and keep setting new highs

In 2024, under the influence of multiple factors such as interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, gold once again showed its "refuge king" nature, with its price rising all the way, breaking new highs repeatedly. Silver and platinum also rose in unison. By the end of December 2024, the London spot gold price closed at 2610.85 US dollars/ounce, up 26.3% year-on-year. In 2025, it still showed a strong upward trend, breaking through the 4000 US dollars mark on October 13th, and closing at 4294.35 US dollars/ounce on October 20th, up 57% year-on-year. The global manufacturing recovery-induced "reflation trade" pulled the industrial demand forecast for silver, and the silver price rose significantly, with an annual increase of 20.7%; in 2025, it still continued the upward trend. The platinum price, driven by the "reflation trade", strengthened in unison, and then declined in the fourth quarter. The World Platinum Council expects that the platinum gap will expand to 2.6 million ounces in 2025, supporting the rise in platinum prices.

04 Strategic emerging mineral supply and demand imbalance, the price center continues to decline, the decline is more than 20 percent.

After a slight rebound in lithium prices in 2024, the price focus has been continuously declining, with a year-on-year drop of 22.6%, and the fluctuation range has gradually narrowed, maintaining a stable low level. In the first three quarters of 2025, affected by the "rush to export" factor overseas, prices have slightly increased, but the contradiction between supply and demand has not been resolved, and prices continue to fall. The global cobalt market in 2024 is still in a state of oversupply, and cobalt prices continue to decline, extending the downward trend of 2023, with a year-on-year low of 16.6%. In February 2025, the DRC announced a suspension of cobalt product exports to regulate the global cobalt market supply and support the rapid rise of cobalt prices. As of October 22, 2025, the settlement price of LME 3-month cobalt futures has risen nearly 100% year-on-year. The nickel price in 2024 continues the downward trend, although it has rebounded slightly due to the impact of Indonesian nickel supply, it is still in a state of oversupply. With the continuous release of Indonesian nickel mines, the nickel price will continue to decline in 2025.

05 Agricultural mineral products market rebounded, prices first fell then rose

The downstream demand weakness in 2024 led to downward pressure on the price of potassium chloride, which fluctuated and declined by 1.3% year-on-year. In 2025, the two major giants in Belarus and Russia announced production cuts simultaneously, leading to a tight global supply and a gradual recovery and increase in potassium salt prices. From the second half of 2024 to the third quarter of 2025, the phosphorus price continued to rise supported by the tight market supply. By the third quarter of 2025, the price of diammonium phosphate had increased by 40.7% year-on-year.

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