Price trend

According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, as of October 24th, spot electrolytic nickel was quoted at 123,033 RMB/ton, a slight increase of 0.37% over the previous period, but still down 3.05% year-on-year. The interaction between macroeconomic factors and weak fundamentals had caused domestic spot electrolytic nickel prices to fluctuate within a narrow range.

On October 18, senior Chinese and American trade officials held a phone call and agreed to hold a new round of consultations as soon as possible, easing market concerns about escalating trade frictions and providing some support for nickel prices. However, continued increases in LME inventories suppressed nickel prices, leading to a slight decline on the 20th.

China's GDP in the first three quarters, released on October 21, grew by 5.2% year-on-year. The economic fundamentals were improving, leading to a single-day rebound in nickel prices.

The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, held from October 20th to 23rd, proposed goals such as high-quality development and scientific and technological self-reliance during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. The market had expectations for subsequent domestic demand stimulus and industrial policies, pushing nickel prices up on the 24th.

Analysis review 

Supply Side:

Strengthening Cost Support: Indonesia's nickel ore reference price for the second phase of October increased by $40.33 per dry ton month-on-month, reflecting tight global nickel ore supply and demand, providing cost support for nickel prices.

Inventories accumulated slightly: LME nickel stocks increased by 324 tons to 250,854 tons, while Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks decreased by 232 tons to 26,810 tons. The oversupply situation still existed, which continued to suppress the upward space of nickel prices.

Import pressure increased: China's nickel iron imports in September 2025 increased significantly by 47.60% year-on-year, mainly from Indonesia and Brazil, exacerbating expectations of domestic oversupply.

Demand side:

Stainless steel demand was weak: The stainless steel market was experiencing a trend of high production and weak inventory reduction. On October 24th, the benchmark stainless steel price on SunSirs was 12,975 RMB/ton, down 0.48% from the previous week. This was providing insufficient support for nickel prices.

Although the new energy sector represents a long-term growth driver, its impact on nickel demand in the short term is limited.

Market outlook

As of October 24, the nickel market fundamentals were characterized by strong supply and weak demand. While rising costs and macroeconomic policy expectations were providing short-term support for prices, high inventories continued to suppress upward price momentum. It is expected that in the absence of major changes in the external environment, nickel prices will remain weak and volatile in the short term.

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