The domestic refined oil price adjustment window opened at 24:00 on October 27th, and the retail price of refined oil is about to be lowered. In 2025, the retail price of refined oil has experienced six upward adjustments, eight downward adjustments, and six stranded adjustments. During this cycle, the crude oil market first fell and then rose, and the crude oil change rate remained negative. The retail price adjustment of refined oil in 2025 will encounter the "ninth" downward adjustment.

Entering this pricing cycle, the international oil price market first fell and then rose. As of the 24th, the settlement price of the December WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $61.50 per barrel, and the settlement price of the December Brent crude oil futures contract was $65.94 per barrel. During this round of price adjustment cycle, the crude oil price market first fell and then rose. At the beginning of the cycle, OPEC+ has launched a new round of production increase of 1.65 million barrels per day. The market is still concerned about the long-term risk of oversupply. The situation between Palestine and Israel has eased, and coupled with the weakening of US demand, the US tariff issue has dragged down global economic and demand expectations, leading to a rapid decline in the international oil price market; However, in the later stage, with the continuation of sanctions policies against some oil producing countries by Europe and the United States, coupled with reduced concerns about negative pressure caused by US tariffs and trade disputes, the crude oil market trend has risen. As of the 27th, the change rate of crude oil varieties on the tenth working day was -6.19%, corresponding to a reduction of 265 RMB/ton of gasoline and 255 RMB per ton of diesel in domestic oil prices, equivalent to 89# 0.19 RMB, 92# 0.20 RMB, 95# 0.21 RMB, and 0# 0.22 RMB/liter.

In terms of gasoline, the operation of Shandong's refineries is relatively stable, with an average operating rate of around 54%. The operating rate of the country's main refineries remains at around 86%, and the supply of refined oil products from refineries has slightly increased. Recently, residents' travel and other activities have been normal, and the wait-and-see atmosphere in the domestic gasoline market has intensified, resulting in further setbacks in transactions. In addition, the increasing popularity of new energy vehicles has led to lower than expected demand performance, resulting in a volatile and downward trend in the gasoline market.

In terms of diesel: Recently, the supply side of the diesel market has slightly increased, and the demand is still mainly based on basic needs. With the gradual opening of the autumn harvest in agriculture, the consumption of agricultural oil has increased compared to before. The demand for infrastructure and logistics is average. In addition, the fishing ban in the north has ended, and there has been an increase in ship oil compared to before. In addition, diesel in the northern region has been converted to -10# diesel, which has led to a slight rise in the diesel market.

Looking ahead, the recent peak season for traditional fuel consumption in the United States is coming to an end, and supply side risks have not been eliminated. International oil prices are mainly experiencing weak fluctuations in the short term, which has limited cost support for the domestic refined oil market. From a domestic perspective, the short-term refinery operating rate is relatively stable, and the supply of refined oil is loose. In addition, there has been no significant increase in gasoline demand, and the gasoline market prices are mainly fluctuating and falling; The demand for diesel has increased compared to before, and diesel prices may slightly rise in the later period.

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