In September, against the backdrop of the supply and demand game, the prices of antimony products continued to decline. However, the overall tight supply of antimony concentrate and the strengthening of its strategic resource attributes have not fundamentally changed the basic logic. The strong support for the relatively strong operation of antimony prices still exists. Considering that a relatively large decline has already occurred in the early stage, it is expected that antimony prices will stop falling and stabilize at the current position.

From January to September, after experiencing a significant increase, antimony prices significant decline, but the price center overall rose. With the resumption of work in enterprises after the Spring Festival holiday, the smelting plants are reluctant to sell and the market supply is relatively tight. Since mid-February, the price of tin has begun to stabilize and rebound rapidly and significantly, especially since March, the domestic price of tin has continued to rise and keep breaking new highs, but since mid-April, the domestic price of tin has clearly declined. Since the third quarter, the price of tin has still continued to decline overall. As of the end of September, the average price of domestic tin concentrate was 167,300 RMB/tonne of metal, up 60.19% year-on-year, with the highest price at 214,000 RMB/tonne of metal and the lowest price at 121,000 RMB/tonne; the average price of tin ingot was 192,500 RMB/ton, up 53.91% year-on-year, with the highest price at 240,000 RMB/ton and the lowest price at 142,000 RMB/ton; the average price of tin oxide was 171,600 RMB/ton, up 55.48% year-on-year, with the highest price at 220,000 RMB/ton and the lowest price at 128,000 RMB/ton.

On the export side, from January to August, China did not export antimony ore, only exporting 4,922.6 tons of antimony oxide, a decrease of 79.04% compared to the same period last year, of which 1,98 tons were exported in August, a decrease of 94.16% compared to the same period last year; from January to August, China exported 307 tons of antimony ingot, a decrease of 87.12% compared to the same period last year, of which 40 tons were exported in August, a decrease of 90.53% compared to the same period last year; from January to August, China exported 2,362.1 tons of lead and antimony alloy (antimony is the main element) , a decrease of 28.46% compared to the same period last year, of which 307.5 tons were exported in August, an increase of 16.94% compared to the same period last year.

On the import side, from January to August, China imported 24,449.9 tons of refined tin, a decrease of 33.10% compared to the same period last year, with imports in August alone falling by 2.54% year-on-year to 4,376.9 tons. Over the same period, China imported 252,366.6 tons of lead-tin alloys (with tin as the main element), a decrease of 18.47% compared to the same period last year, and in August alone, imports fell by 76.86% year-on-year to 44,032 tons.

Since the beginning of this year, the development trend of domestic downstream applications of antimony has been generally good. From January to August, the output of major application fields has shown an increasing trend, especially the production of synthetic rubber, solar cells, automobiles, new energy vehicles, etc., which has achieved a double-digit increase.

The export of lead-acid batteries continues to decline. Affected by overseas tariffs, in August, China exported 12.486 million lead-acid batteries, a year-on-year decrease of 24.5%, and the monthly export volume was at a low level in recent years; from January to August, the cumulative export of lead-acid batteries exceeded 104 million, a year-on-year decrease of 11.1%.

The American Antimony Corporation wins a $245 million antimony bar purchase contract from the U.S. military. The American Antimony Corporation (UAMY) has reached an important cooperation with the U.S. Defense Logistics Agency (U.S. Defense Logistics Agency) - to obtain a $245 million exclusive source (sole-source) 5-year contract for the supply of antimony bars, the ultimate use of which is to replenish the U.S. national defense reserve (U.S.National Defense Stockpile). In general, U.S. government agencies tend to procurement through public bidding to ensure fairness and cost optimization. However, this time the "exclusive source" model was chosen, and there are likely two special considerations behind this: On the one hand, tin, as a rare metal, has a concentrated distribution of high-quality resources globally, and the number of companies in the United States that have the capacity to produce large-scale tin ingots is limited. U.S. Tin Company is one of the few suppliers that can meet the military's quality standards and capacity stability requirements. On the other hand, the procurement of defense materials has extremely high requirements for timeliness and supply chain security. Choosing a directly cooperative, verified domestic enterprise can avoid the process loss of public bidding and reduce the geopolitical risks that may be faced when relying on overseas suppliers. The 5-year long-term contract design reflects the U.S. Defense Logistics Agency's long-term demand for the stability of tin ingot supply. The replenishment of the defense reserve is not a short-term behavior, and it is necessary to lock in the supply through medium and long-term agreements to avoid supply interruptions caused by market price fluctuations and corporate production adjustments. Therefore, it can be seen that the U.S. government's procurement behavior this time has a distinct national security orientation. Although tin does not frequently appear in the context of new energy as rare earth and lithium do, it is an indispensable key mineral in the defense industry: in the field of weapon equipment, tin can be used to manufacture ammunition initiating materials and grenade bodies, directly affecting the performance of weapons; in the field of military equipment materials, tin compounds (such as antimony trioxide) are efficient flame retardants, widely used in the interior materials of military aircraft, ships, vehicles and electronic equipment, which can significantly improve the safety and reliability of equipment in high-temperature and fire environments. And from the perspective of the U.S. resource endowment, the storage capacity of its domestic tin mine resources is limited, and it has long relied on imports, which makes the replenishment of the national defense reserve an important measure to ensure national security. In recent years, against the backdrop of the restructuring of the global supply chain, the United States has continuously increased its emphasis on the "localization of supply" of key minerals, and this procurement is a concrete implementation of this strategy—by signing long-term contracts with domestic enterprises, it can not only replenish the defense reserve but also support the development of the domestic key mineral industry, forming a dual effect of "reserve replenishment + industry cultivation". For U.S. Tin Company (UAMY), this contract is a "landmark" opportunity.The five-year contract worth $4.5 billion not only signifies a stable revenue stream—yielding approximately $49 million in committed revenue annually if spread over five years—it also effectively mitigates performance risks posed by market demand fluctuations. More importantly, the title of "U.S. Department of Defense Logistics Agency Supplier" will significantly enhance its market reputation and industry standing. Additionally, the long-term contract provides clear guidance for the company's capacity planning—potentially leading to further optimization of mining processes, expansion of smelting capacity, and a transition from "resource exploration and development" to "stable large-scale production," thereby enhancing overall competitiveness.

From the supply side, there is no incremental resource support at home and abroad. Among them, there is no significant growth potential and motivation for domestic antimony mine production, and the import volume of antimony concentrate has also declined as a whole, and the overall supply from the mine side maintains a tight pattern. From a short-term perspective, against the backdrop of the continuous adjustment of antimony product prices, the adjustment or acceleration of the leading enterprise's smelting production will continue to intensify the pressure of supply contraction; from a medium-term and long-term perspective, the grade of domestic antimony mine resources continues to decline, and the environmental protection supervision is becoming stricter, and the growth space of production is generally limited. The relatively high price of antimony products also makes it difficult to stimulate the increase of mine production, and the overall supply pattern is difficult to fundamentally change in the short term. Against the backdrop of the strong operation of overseas antimony prices, resource competition is white-hot, and countries such as the United States, Canada, and Australia have increased the exploration and development of antimony mine resources. Most of the in-construction capacity projects are still in the early development stage, and it is difficult to form incremental supply to alleviate the supply pressure in China in the short term. The price difference between the inside and outside makes it difficult for antimony mine resources to enter the domestic market effectively, and there is no benefit for the import of antimony mine resources in the short term.

From the demand side, China's economy continues to maintain a steady and progressive development trend. In terms of foreign demand, although exports to the United States continue to decline, China's exports to ASEAN, Africa, South Asia, Central Asia and other non-US regions have increased significantly, and foreign trade exports have maintained growth for six consecutive months, still with strong resilience. In addition, uncertainties brought about by changes in the political situation, such as in Japan, need to be further monitored in the economic and trade field. The domestic "trade-in" policy will continue to support durable goods consumption, but we need to be wary of the pressure on domestic demand facing downward pressure after the policy recession, and industrial enterprises are still facing pressure to repair profits and reduce inventory. In addition, as winter approaches, air conditioning and other household appliance consumption enter the off-season, which may drag down some consumption. In summary, macro factors have a neutral impact on the demand for tin products, and there are relatively few major interference factors recently.

Overall, at present, the adjustment of export policies and the perturbations brought about by tariff disputes still exist, but the overall tight supply of refined antimony and the strengthening of its strategic resource attributes will not fundamentally change in the short term. The continuous decline of antimony prices since the third quarter is a reasonable adjustment after a surge, and there is still strong support for a strong performance in the medium and long term, especially after a significant decline in prices, domestic upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain will continue to make adaptive adjustments through flexible adjustments such as production. It is recommended to focus on changes in the global tariff environment, the intensity of domestic macro-support policies, and the direction of adjustments in export policies. It is expected that antimony prices will continue to fluctuate widely at a higher level. Against the backdrop of its scarcity and strategic value, antimony prices may stop falling and stabilize.

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