Price trend

In late October 2025, the acrylic acid market experienced a decline, with an overall bearish sentiment. The core market characteristics can be summarized as: collapsed cost support, persistent supply pressure, and continued weak downstream demand. These three factors combined to drive prices downward. As of October 21st, the benchmark price of acrylic acid on SunSirs was 7,133.33 RMB/ton, up 0.70% from 7,183.00 RMB/ton the previous week.

Analysis review

Cost side:

The most fundamental driver of the market decline came from upstream. The market price of propylene, the primary raw material, continued to decline. As of October 21st, the benchmark price of propylene on SunSirs was 6,195.75 RMB/ton, a 5.31% decrease from 6,543.25 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month. This significantly shifted the production cost center of acrylic acid downward, removing the price anchor from the source of the supply chain. When production costs no longer constitute a rigid constraint, manufacturers have greater flexibility and room for compromise in pricing and shipping strategies.

Supply side:

The industry's overall operating load remained stable, and there were reports of planned plant restarts in Lanzhou and other locations. This suggests that future market supply may increase further, exacerbating supply pressures.

Demand Side:

This was the biggest pain point in the market. Downstream industries (such as coatings, adhesives, and SAP) generally adopted a conservative strategy, with "just-in-time purchases" becoming the mainstream. They were primarily focused on fulfilling existing contracts or clearing their own inventory, with minimal willingness to proactively enter the market to stock up. Although downstream operating rates had recovered somewhat since the holiday, the resulting increase in actual purchases was insufficient to absorb the market's supply and thus fails to effectively drive prices.

Given these fundamentals, a wait-and-see attitude prevailed in the market. A preference for buying high and avoiding selling low led downstream customers to hold onto their cash, awaiting lower prices. This sentiment further dampened trading activity, creating a negative feedback loop. To attract orders and maintain cash flow, suppliers were forced to align their offers with market trends, even proactively lowering prices to boost shipments, leading to a continuous downward shift in the market's center of gravity.

Future Outlook

Overall, the weak acrylic acid market is unlikely to reverse in the short term and is expected to continue its weak, volatile downward trend.

Negative factors:

The weakness in the upstream raw material market is expected to persist, and cost support is unlikely to recover in the short term. Meanwhile, without a significant and sustained increase in downstream demand, oversupply will remain the core factor suppressing prices.

In the future, we need to focus on the production adjustments and quotation strategies of mainstream production enterprises. Large-scale, proactive load reductions and production cuts may provide an opportunity for the market to stabilize. Otherwise, in the absence of positive stimulus, the market's decline is likely to continue.

In summary, as of October 21, the acrylic acid market was in a typical downward channel of "weak cost-weak demand" double squeeze. All participants need to remain cautious and pay close attention to any changes in supply and demand fundamentals.

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