The Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture stated that as of October 20, the grain export volume of Ukraine for the fiscal year 2025/26 (starting from July) was 8.017 million tons, a decrease of 39.6% from the same period last year's 13.266 million tons. The grain export volume from October 1st to 20th was 1.34 million tons, lower than the 2.82 million tons in the same period last year. So far this year, 1.17 million tons of corn have been exported, compared to 3.98 million tons in the same period last year.

As a major global corn exporting country, Ukraine's corn export volume for the fiscal year 2025/26 as of October 20 was only 1.17 million tons, a significant decrease of 70.6% compared to last year's 3.98 million tons, indicating a significant reduction in supply. This will push up global corn spot prices as the international market relies on Ukrainian supply. Based on the corn futures data from Dalian Commodity Exchange (such as the settlement price of the main 2601 contract at 2,141 RMB/ton, up and down+13, and an increase in holdings of 49,071 lots), the market has reflected supply concerns, and futures prices are expected to continue to rise with demand support.

Corn starch, as a deep processed product of corn, will directly increase production costs if the price of corn raw materials rises. The sharp decline in Ukrainian corn exports has exacerbated the shortage of raw material supply, indirectly supporting the spot price of corn starch. Although there is no direct futures data, cost pressures are expected to increase downstream product premiums.

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