Price trend:(10.1-10.17) V-shaped fluctuation

Market transactions were sluggish due to factors such as slow post-holiday logistics recovery and weaker-than-expected downstream demand recovery. Manufacturers, seeking to reduce inventory, generally offered discounts on shipments, leading to a 1.73% drop in dichloromethane prices in Shandong Province. With the release of news of plant shutdowns for maintenance, expectations of tighter supply quickly intensified, causing prices to climb 2.64%. With prices recovering, downstream resistance to high-priced raw materials emerged, slowing purchasing activity and weakening trading sentiment. Amidst the oscillation between tight supply and insufficient demand, dichloromethane prices were temporarily stable with a slight decline. According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, as of October 17, the average bulk price of dichloromethane in Shandong Province was 1,735 RMB/ton, a 0.43% decrease over the previous period and a 39.12% year-on-year plunge.

Supply side: Equipment maintenance became a "turning point" in the market

The operating rate of the industry's methane chloride units had been lowered. It is reported that the 240,000-ton methane chloride unit of Shandong Jinling Dawang Plant was shut down for maintenance from October 12, which is expected to last about 10 days. The expectation of tightening supply on the market supports the market sentiment, and the dichloromethane market had rebounded.

Cost side: Raw material support had been strengthened, but high inventory pressure still existed

Raw material methanol: Due to issues such as port access restrictions, methanol prices rose 3.87% during the period. As of October 17, the SunSirs methanol benchmark price was 2,324 RMB/ton, providing some support for dichloromethane costs. However, the methanol market itself still faced significant supply and inventory pressures, limiting price increases. Traders were generally adopting a wait-and-see approach, thus limiting the transmission of support to downstream markets.

Raw material liquid chlorine: The liquid chlorine market in Shandong Province had stable delivery and slightly rising prices, which indirectly provided moderate cost support for dichloromethane.

Demand side: mainly based on urgent needs, with limited acceptance of high prices

As of October 17, downstream industries (such as refrigerants, pharmaceuticals, and solvents) primarily purchased on demand, with no strong demand for centralized stockpiling. When dichloromethane prices rose rapidly, downstream companies faced increased cost pressures, leading to a shift toward cautious purchasing behavior. This hindered high-priced transactions and curbed further price increases. "Insufficient demand follow-up" was the primary factor restraining the  market's performance.

Market outlook

The moderate increase in raw material costs, coupled with the continued tight market supply until production resumes after maintenance, provided positive support. However, downstream demand had not seen a substantial improvement, and acceptance of higher-priced supplies was limited, which will severely limit price increases. If demand remains sluggish, prices will face downward pressure again once supply recovers. Pay attention to the resumption of production of enterprises.

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