Corn: The forecast for China's corn production and consumption situation for the 2025/26 marketing year remains consistent with last month, with the import volume reduced by 1 million tons to 6 million tons. The light, temperature, and water conditions in the Northeast region are well-matched, the first frost period is delayed, which is conducive to the full grain filling and maturing of autumn crops. It is expected that there will be more clear and good weather in the later period, which is conducive to the maturing and harvesting of autumn crops. Most of North China and the eastern part of the Yellow-Huai region have favorable water and heat conditions for the formation of crop yields, but the excessive rain in Henan, Shaanxi, and Shanxi affects the autumn harvest. It is expected that the later period of precipitation in the western part of North China and the northwest part of the Yellow-Huai region will still be excessive, with a high risk of continuous rainy weather and agricultural waterlogging, and it is necessary to seize the clear and good weather or rainfall intervals to harvest and dry. Entering October, corn production areas across the country will enter the concentrated harvest period one after another, and the market supply volume is expected to increase further. However, this year's import scale has dropped significantly, and the current carryover inventory is at a low level. The reserve purchase will also be launched at the right time, and it is expected that the price will remain stable.

Soybeans: For the 2024/25 marketing year, the wholesale average price of domestic soybeans in the consumption areas was 44,750 RMB per ton, a decrease of 10.6% compared to the previous year, below the expected price range; the average price of imported soybeans at the arrival port was 37,810 RMB per ton, a decrease of 7.4% compared to the previous year, within the expected price range. The market supply and demand data for the 2025/26 marketing year will not be adjusted this month. In the domestic market, the main producing areas have gradually entered the concentrated harvesting period. The growth of the Northeast region is generally good, with full and plump pods, and the expectation of a good harvest is strong; parts of the Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan, and Anhui regions have been affected by high temperatures and droughts during the growth period and continuous rainy weather in late September, which has a negative impact on the yield and quality of new soybeans, and continuous tracking and assessment are needed in the later stage. At present, the trading entities in the Northeast region are actively entering the market, the market has obvious characteristics of high quality and high price, the soybean harvest in the North China and Huanghuai regions is delayed, and the market transactions are lukewarm. In the international market, the main producing areas of US soybeans are warm and dry, which is conducive to the maturing and harvesting of soybeans; the new season planting in South America has entered a critical stage, Brazil's drought weather is not conducive to the subsequent progress, and the improvement of soil moisture in Argentina is conducive to early planting. Overall, the global soybean supply remains loose.

Cotton: The 2024/25 cotton marketing year has ended. According to customs statistics, China's actual import volume for this year is 1.06 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the estimated value. This month, the cotton production, consumption, and import volume for the new year are maintained at the same level as the previous month's forecast. The meteorological conditions during the cotton growth period were suitable, and the local yield and quality exceeded expectations. After a comprehensive analysis in the later stage, the yield will be adjusted. Cotton has entered the concentrated harvesting period. According to the China Cotton Information Network data, as of October 6, the cotton harvesting progress in Xinjiang is 24.9%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The starting price of lint cotton is flat to slightly down compared to last year. After the concentrated listing, there is a downward risk. The domestic cotton price range for the 2025/26 marketing year is adjusted to RMB 14,000-16,000 per ton.

Edible Vegetable Oil: At the end of the marketing year 2024/25, China's edible vegetable oil production is 314.4 million tons. Due to the increase in production, the edible vegetable oil import volume for the 2024/25 marketing year is revised down by 5 million tons to 7.06 million tons, of which the imports of palm oil and sunflower seed oil are revised down by 300,000 tons and 200,000 tons, respectively. The average ex-factory prices for the third grade soybean oil, third grade rapeseed oil, and first grade peanut oil for the 2024/25 marketing year are 8,089 RMB/ton, 9,585 RMB/ton, and 14,635 RMB/ton, respectively, all within the estimated range. The data for the supply and demand forecast of China's edible vegetable oil for the 2025/26 marketing year is not adjusted this month. According to the meteorological department's forecast, the precipitation in the western part of North China and the northwest part of the Huanghuaihe region will be more in October, and the corresponding peanut production areas need to do a good job in harvesting, and timely drying and drying to prevent the new season's peanuts from mildewing.

Sugar: At the end of the 2024/25 sugar marketing year, China's sugar production and consumption had accumulated 11.16 million tons of sugar, an increase of 1.2 million tons over the previous year; the average price of sugar for the year was 5,993 RMB per ton, within the predicted range, down by 498 RMB per ton, or 7.7% compared to the previous year; the average price of international raw sugar for the year was 18.58 cents per pound, within the predicted range, down by 3.1 cents per pound compared to the previous year, or 14.3%. This month's forecast for the 2025/26 sugar supply and demand situation in China remains consistent with last month's forecast. In August, the excessive rainfall in Inner Mongolia was not conducive to the accumulation of sugar in beets and the harvesting of beets, and the sugar mills started later, the impact on the production of beet sugar needs to be further tracked and evaluated. At the end of September and the beginning of October, the main sugarcane producing areas in Guangdong and Guangxi were affected by typhoons, and phenomena such as sugarcane lodging occurred, and the recovery of sugarcane growth after the disaster needs to be continuously monitored.

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