According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of locally refined gasoline and diesel in Shandong Province has mainly declined this week. As of the weekend, the domestic price of 92# gasoline was 7,413.6 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.52% this week; The domestic price of 0# diesel is 6,384 RMB/ton, with a 1.52% decline in price trend this week.

Cost aspect: The decline in crude oil prices has led to a decrease in refined oil products

The price trend of the crude oil market has declined. As of the 16th, the settlement price of the December WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $56.99 per barrel, and the settlement price of the December Brent crude oil futures contract was $61.06 per barrel. The crude oil market is affected by negative factors. On the one hand, OPEC+ has launched a new round of production increase of 1.65 million barrels per day, but the market is still concerned about the long-term risk of oversupply, and the crude oil market continues to decline; On the other hand, the easing of the situation between Israel and Palestine, coupled with weakened demand from the United States, has dragged down global economic and demand expectations due to US tariffs. In addition, the increase in US crude oil inventories has led to the end of the peak oil season in the United States, and the global economic outlook and oil demand are not optimistic, resulting in a rapid decline in international oil prices. The crude oil market directly affects the domestic refined oil market, with the main reason being the decline in domestic gasoline and diesel prices.

Supply side: Shandong local refining plant starts production to maintain normal supply of refined oil products

Recently, some facilities in the local refining industry have increased their operating load, but the operating rate has not changed much. The average operating rate of Shandong's local refining industry is around 54%, while the operating rate of the country's main refineries remains at around 85%. The supply of refined oil from local refining industries has been maintained, and the supply of gasoline and diesel in Shandong has increased compared to before. However, the market for gasoline and diesel in Shandong has mainly declined.

On the demand side, the overall market for gasoline and diesel is mainly declining due to weak demand

In terms of gasoline, residents' travel and other activities are mainly normal. In addition, the recent decline in the crude oil market has intensified the wait-and-see atmosphere in the domestic gasoline market, resulting in further setbacks in transactions. In addition, the increasing popularity of new energy vehicles has led to lower than expected demand performance, resulting in a volatile decline in the gasoline market. In terms of diesel, there has been a slight increase in the supply side of the diesel market recently. In terms of demand, there has been an increase in rainy weather, which has weakened the terminal demand. Recently, the autumn harvest in agriculture has gradually begun, and the consumption of agricultural oil has increased compared to before. The demand for infrastructure and logistics is average. After the end of the fishing ban in the north in September, there has been an increase in ship oil compared to before. Both long and short factors have jointly affected the diesel market, and the main trend is a decline.

The peak season for traditional fuel consumption in the United States has ended recently, and supply side risks have not been eliminated. However, weak demand is the main factor, and international oil prices are expected to fluctuate and fall in the short term, which will weaken the cost support for the domestic refined oil market. From a domestic perspective, the short-term refinery operating rate remains stable, the supply of refined oil is loose, and there is no significant increase in gasoline demand, resulting in a decrease in gasoline market prices; The demand for diesel is still acceptable, but the support for crude oil is weak, and diesel prices will fluctuate and fall in the later stage.

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