Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, domestic lithium carbonate has shown a narrow fluctuation trend recently. As of October 15, the SunSirs benchmark spot price of domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate was 73,016 RMB/ton, up 1.95% from the previous month and down 10.3% from the previous year; the SunSirs benchmark spot price of domestic industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 71,166 RMB/ton, up 1.93% from the previous month and down 9.69% from the previous year.

Supply side: pressure and support coexisted

The overall supply side presented a situation of intertwined pressure and support. On the one hand, supply pressure still existed: domestic lithium carbonate production continued to grow, and it is expected that production in October may exceed 90,000 tons. The continued increase in production has exerted a certain pressure on market prices.

On the other hand, Chilean customs released export data showing that in September 2025, Chile's total lithium carbonate exports were 15,918 tons, a decrease of 5.83% month-on-month and 12.74% year-on-year. Among them, 11,101 tons were exported to China, a decrease of 14.5% month-on-month and 33.1% year-on-year, which to some extent reduced the increase in market supply.

Demand side: resilience and worries intertwined

The demand side showed a mix of support and concerns. In the power battery sector, demand remained resilient. With the continued development of the new energy vehicle industry, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles had steadily increased, driving the growth of power battery demand, which in turn provided some support for lithium carbonate demand.

However, the escalation of SunSirs trade frictions had also increased the uncertainty of export orders for lithium carbonate and its downstream product energy storage batteries, further putting pressure on the demand side.

Market outlook

SunSirs' lithium carbonate data analysts believe that as of October 15, the lithium carbonate marketwa mixed with both positive and negative factors, and prices are expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly around the price on October 15. Specific changes in market supply and demand still need to be monitored.

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