According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the market for locally refined petroleum coke in September first fell and then rose, with prices falling overall. The mainstream average price of petroleum coke products from major domestic refineries was 2,385.75 RMB/ton on September 30th, a decrease of 2.22% compared to 2,440 RMB/ton on September 1st.
On the cost side, the crude oil market prices fluctuated widely in September, and the crude oil market was affected by both long and short factors. On the one hand, geopolitical factors are still one of the important factors affecting the crude oil market. The Russia Ukraine issue has led to a strong operation of the crude oil market, coupled with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts benefiting the international oil market, the crude oil market trend has risen. On the other hand, Saudi crude oil may increase production, leading to an increase in US crude oil inventories. In addition, with the end of the peak oil season in the US, the global economic outlook and oil demand are not optimistic, putting pressure on crude oil market prices.
Supply side: In mid to early September, the market for refined petroleum coke fluctuated and declined, with average shipments from refineries. Some refineries' petroleum coke prices fluctuated significantly with indicators, and petroleum coke prices fluctuated alternately; Downstream enterprises have average enthusiasm for petroleum coke procurement, with a strong wait-and-see attitude and cautious approach to market purchases; In late September, the market for refined petroleum coke stopped falling and rose. Refineries reduced their inventory before the holiday, and downstream procurement was cautious, which limited support for the petroleum coke market. In mid to early September, the port's petroleum coke production was active, with a decrease in incoming ships and a continuous decrease in port inventory. Downstream flows mainly went to carbon plants, with some going to silicon carbide factories; The price of sponge coke at the port continued to rise in the latter half of the year, leading to an increase in inquiries.
On the demand side, the overall operating capacity of silicon metal in September is expected to increase compared to August, and the overall silicon metal production will continue to increase. Therefore, there is some supply pressure on the supply side. However, Yunnan and Sichuan regions are about to enter a dry season, and electricity prices will rise. In addition, there is also an expectation for silicon coal prices to continue to rise. Supply side shipments are still mainly driven by rising prices, providing impetus for the upward trend of the market. The demand for petroleum coke market in the silicon industry still exists.
In September, the domestic operating capacity exceeded 44 million tons, approaching the policy ceiling of 45 million tons, and there was no significant release of new investment capacity in October. The electricity price for electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Yunnan region has been officially raised by 0.12 yuan/kWh. From the supply side, although the resumption of electrolytic aluminum production in Yunnan has been basically completed, with 545,000 tons of the planned production capacity of 565,000 tons restored, the increase in electricity prices still has a certain impact on enterprise production, which in turn affects the supply of aluminum ingots. Downstream aluminum uses carbon as the main demand in the petroleum coke market.
During the National Day holiday, the price of locally refined petroleum coke continued to rise, and port petroleum coke mainly executed previous orders, resulting in a slight increase in price; At present, downstream carbon enterprises are actively stocking up, coupled with low inventory of petroleum coke in refineries and improved indicators in some refineries, which is favorable for the petroleum coke market. It is expected that the petroleum coke market will rise in the near future.
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