According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic PP market maintained a weak operation in September, with prices of various brand products falling more and rising less. As of September 30th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 6,923.33 RMB/ton, up or down by 3.57% from the price level at the beginning of September.

In terms of raw materials: Since September, the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe has remained relaxed, and at the same time, the OPEC+ early production increase plan combined with a new round of production increase strategy in September has reduced market concerns about crude oil supply, with international oil prices mainly fluctuating. The propylene sector rose in the first half of the year due to the maintenance of Haiwei, but with sufficient supply of goods on site, the market resistance increased after the good news was exhausted, and the price turned from high to low. Seasonal consumption of propane is on the rise, and prices are gradually stabilizing. Overall, the prices of PP raw materials have fluctuated, providing average cost support.

On the supply side, the operating rate of domestic PP enterprises fluctuated in September. In the first half of the month, Yulong Petrochemical and Shaoxing Sanyuan units underwent maintenance, while in the second half, Daqing Refinery and Huizhou Rio Tinto resumed work. As of the time of writing, the overall load level of the domestic industry is 77%, which is comparable to the operating rate in early September. The weekly average total output is over 770,000 tons. The trend of loose supply in the future is clear, which severely limits the support from the supply side. The current on-site supply remains abundant, and the inventory level of over 770,000 tons is relatively controllable at a high level. Overall, the PP supply side has poor support for spot prices.

In terms of demand, September falls within the traditional peak season for PP, and materials used in areas such as plastic weaving and agriculture have improved to a certain extent. There is also an increase in new orders in the field of packaging film materials, and the market momentum continues to rise. However, the positive trend of improved trading atmosphere in the current market has been smoothed out by many negative factors. The magnitude of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has been announced, and market expectations have weakened. In addition, downstream enterprises have a low workload and many National Day holidays are arranged, resulting in slow overall digestion, which has led to the failure of PP peak season consumption start-up and weak support for the demand side.

The domestic PP market prices remained weak and fell in September. From a fundamental perspective, the upstream raw material market is fluctuating, with average overall support for PP. The industry load is expected to remain high with a narrow adjustment, and there are expectations of loose supply in the future. Although there has been an improvement in consumption, the market is being dragged by the cost and supply sides. There is no obvious peak season feature in the current market, and there is significant resistance to PP's upward trend. It is expected that the weak adjustment trend may continue.

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