Aluminum prices showed strength followed by weakness in September. According to SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, as of September 26, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market stood at 20,783.33 RMB per ton, up 0.76% from the September 1 average of 20,636.67 RMB per ton.

Aluminum prices have surpassed the 20,000 RMB threshold, reaching a relatively high level over the past 1-2 years. With alumina prices retreating from elevated levels, current tonnage profits for aluminum production remain in a relatively favorable position.

Recent Bullish Factors

Declining SHFE Aluminum Inventories (Reduced Warehouse Receipts)

According to SHFE data, aluminum futures warehouse receipts stood at 63,230 tons on September 26, 2025, down 1,178 tons from the previous period.

Primary aluminum inventories remain relatively low

On September 25, primary aluminum ingot inventories in major domestic consumption regions stood at 614,000 tons. This represents a decrease of 6,000 tons compared to September 4's social inventory of 620,000 tons, and a reduction of 23,000 tons from September 22's social inventory of 637,000 tons. Within the month, aluminum inventories first increased then decreased. The earlier rise (September 4-22) stemmed partly from sustained high operating capacity and ample supply. Despite improved orders at some downstream enterprises during the peak “Golden September” consumption season, overall demand growth likely failed to fully absorb the new supply, leading to a slight inventory increase. Approaching the holiday, restocking demand rose this week, driving down social inventories.

Aluminum Billet Market Inventory Decline (Inventory Reduction)

As of September 25, 2025, aluminum billet inventories in major domestic consumption areas fell to 123,000 metric tons, a significant decrease of 12,000 metric tons from the previous Thursday. This primarily resulted from increased road freight deliveries and persistently low warehouse arrivals, limiting supply growth. Concurrently, downstream processors initiated pre-holiday stockpiling ahead of the National Day holiday, driving outbound shipments up by 4,100 tons week-on-week to 47,500 tons. On September 26, combined domestic aluminum rod inventories across two regions (Guangdong: 51,500 tons; Wuxi: 26,500 tons) totaled 78,000 tons, down 3,000 tons from the previous period.

Recent Bearish Factors

Alumina Spot Price Decline (Average Price Drop)

Recent spot alumina prices have trended downward, with average prices declining. On September 26, domestic spot alumina prices fell in some regions: East China quoted prices between CNY 2,910-2,950/ton, down CNY 10 from the previous session; Southwest and Northwest China maintained prices unchanged from the previous session. Since September, domestic metallurgical-grade alumina spot prices have continued their downward trend, falling over 2.5% from late August and nearly 20% year-on-year.

Market Outlook

Raw Material Side: Alumina operating capacity remains high with continued inventory buildup, limiting cost support for aluminum prices.

Downstream Demand Side: As the domestic peak season approaches, spot demand for aluminum ingots has improved, with primary processing plants seeing increased operating rates compared to the previous period.

In summary, the upside potential for aluminum prices has narrowed. However, the trend remains largely dependent on the actual materialization of downstream demand. Prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term.

If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.