Price trend

This week, the acrylic acid market was showing a supply-demand dynamic, with prices rising steadily. The recent price increase was primarily supported by tight supply and pre-holiday stocking.

As of September 24th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid on SunSirs was 6,633.33 RMB/ton, a 6.13% increase from the price of 6,250 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month, a significant increase from the beginning of the month. Specifically, prices varied across brands and specifications. The mainstream price range for acrylic acid was 5,700 to 6,800 RMB/ton, reflecting the tight supply of high-quality supplies and strong prices. This price trend was fundamentally supported by marginal changes in supply and demand.

Analysis review

Supply side:

Some signs of marginal tightening were emerging. On the one hand, recent unplanned maintenance shutdowns of major production facilities, such as CNOOC's acrylic acid oxidation unit, had directly reduced spot supply in Shandong and other regions. On the other hand, export orders had been relatively smooth, diverting some domestic supply. These factors had reduced selling pressure on holders, giving them the confidence to raise prices.

Demand side:

On the demand side, with the holiday approaching, downstream factories were stockpiling inventory to ensure production, providing substantial support for market prices. However, it's important to note that as stockpiling nearing completion, the market's upward momentum may temporarily weaken, entering a short-term consolidation period.

Cost side:

Propylene is the core raw material for acrylic acid production. The propylene market has recently been experiencing a tight supply-demand balance, with prices stabilizing at high levels. This provided solid cost support for acrylic acid prices. As of September 24, the benchmark price of propylene on SunSirs was 6,640.75 RMB/ton, down 0.34% from the price of 6,663.25 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month.

Market outlook

Overall, acrylic acid prices remained strong, driven by unexpectedly tight supply and pre-holiday stocking. However, downstream manufacturers were generally facing cost pressures and were primarily adopting a strategy of buying on dips to meet demand, which may limit future price increases.

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