Price trend
According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the price of lithium carbonate has shown a narrow upward trend recently. As of September 23, the SunSirs benchmark price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 73,266 RMB/ton, up 2.21% from the previous week (September 16), down 12.5% from the previous month, and down 5.83% from the same period last year; the SunSirs benchmark price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 71,766 RMB/ton, up 2.5% from the previous week (September 16), down 12.66% from the previous month, and down 4.82% from the same period last year.
Demand growth outstripped supply, creating a period of tight balance
The demand side had obvious peak season characteristics
New Energy Vehicles: In August, domestic new energy vehicle production and sales increased by 27.4% and 26.8% year-on-year, respectively. Cumulative sales from January to August reached 9.62 million units, a year-on-year increase of 36.7%. Battery factories were starting to stock up, driving a rebound in demand for lithium carbonate used in power batteries.
Energy storage: The National Energy Administration's "Energy Storage Action Plan" was driving a rush to install solar panels in some provinces and cities, further boosting short-term demand. On September 22, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Guidelines for the High-Quality Development of Industrial Parks," which calls for strengthening the development and utilization of new energy infrastructure such as rooftop photovoltaics, distributed wind power, diversified energy storage, and charging stations.
Supply-side disturbances and increases coexisted
Policy restrictions: Due to changes in mining licenses for eight lepidolite mines in Jiangxi Province (the mineral type adjustment must be completed before September 30), the Lianxiawo mining area under CATL has not resumed production since it was suspended in August, exacerbating market expectations of supply contraction.
Capacity Release: Lithium production from spodumene continued to grow, partially offsetting the shortfall from reduced lepidolite production. Domestic weekly lithium carbonate production rose slightly by 544 tons to 19,963 tons in September.
Policy impact: Support prices in the short term and regulate the industry in the long term
Supply-side policy disruptions, including changes to lithium mining licenses in Jiangxi Province, have become a recent market focus. If most mines fail to complete the necessary procedures by September 30, the supply gap could widen, boosting prices in the short term.
According to authoritative sources, relevant departments are preparing to issue "Standardized Conditions for the Lithium Carbonate Industry," which will establish entry barriers based on energy consumption, environmental protection, and technical indicators, and force the elimination of outdated production capacity. Currently, China's lithium carbonate production capacity utilization rate is less than 65%, with a large amount of low-cost speculative capacity flooding the market. This policy will directly address the industry's pain points.
Market outlook
The lithium carbonate data analyst of SunSirs believes that the price of lithium carbonate has seen a narrow increase recently due to stocking up during the peak season of demand and policy disturbances on the supply side. The implementation of Jiangxi's lithium mine policy on September 30 will become a key node. If the supply contraction exceeds expectations, the price may continue to rise. Otherwise, there is no upward momentum and the price will continue to fluctuate around the cost line. It still need pay attention to market changes.
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