According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as the end of September approaches, the domestic PP market is maintaining a weak and consolidated operation, with prices of various brand products falling more and rising less. As of September 23rd, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 6,961.67 RMB/ton, a decrease of 3.04% compared to the price level at the beginning of September.

In terms of raw materials: Since September, the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe has remained relaxed, and market concerns about crude oil supply have decreased. At the same time, the OPEC+production increase strategy has continued to this day, coupled with a temporary decline in global demand and low fluctuations in international oil prices. In the early stage of propylene, the boost from Haiwei's maintenance was exhausted, and there was sufficient supply of goods on site. The upward resistance in the market increased, and the price turned from high to low. Seasonal consumption of propane is on the rise, with prices remaining firm. Overall, the prices of PP raw materials have fluctuated, providing average cost support.

Supply side: Recently, the operating rate of domestic PP enterprises has increased narrowly. In the early stage, Yulong Petrochemical's first line and Shaoxing SanRMB's partial units underwent mid maintenance. Recently, Daqing Refining and Chemical's first line and Huizhou Rio Tinto's first line have resumed work. Coupled with the imminent return of Ningxia Baofeng's third line, as of the time of writing, the overall load level of the domestic industry has been raised to around 76%, and the weekly average total output is around 770,000 tons. The trend of loose supply in the future is clear, which severely limits the support from the supply side. The current on-site supply remains abundant, and the inventory level is significantly controllable at a high level of 800,000 tons. Overall, the PP supply side has poor support for spot prices.

In terms of demand: September is in the traditional peak season for polypropylene, and materials used in fields such as plastic weaving and agriculture have improved to a certain extent. There is also an increase in new orders in the field of packaging film materials, and the market momentum continues to rise. However, the positive trend of improved trading atmosphere in the current market has been smoothed out by many negative factors. In addition, downstream enterprises have a low workload and many National Day holidays are arranged, resulting in slow overall digestion, which has led to the failure of PP peak season consumption start-up and weak support for the demand side.

As September approaches the end of the month, the domestic PP market prices are still running weakly. Fundamentally speaking, the upstream raw material market is also weak, and the overall support for PP is insufficient. The industry load is expected to remain high with a narrow adjustment, and there are expectations of loose supply in the future. Although there has been an improvement in consumption, the market is being dragged by the cost and supply sides. There is no obvious peak season feature in the current market, and there is resistance to the PP upward trend. It is expected that the game may continue to consolidate the market.

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