Before the Spring Festival, traders in the producing areas will still have a wave of shipments of commercial peanut kernels, but the inventory is relatively sufficient, and the downstream demand may lack the momentum to push up prices. Before the Spring Festival, traders in the producing areas will still have a wave of shipments of commercial peanut kernels, but the inventory is relatively sufficient, and the downstream demand may lack the momentum to push up prices.

In the 2025 production season, the overall supply of new peanuts is ample, and the quality differences of supplies in different regions have led to price gaps. From the perspective of current downstream demand for peanuts, oil-use peanuts play a major role in consuming the supply, while downstream buyers of commodity peanuts replenish stocks in appropriate quantities when prices are low. Overall, since the 2026 Spring Festival is relatively late, the driving effect of holiday consumption is limited. It is expected that after a phased rise in peanut prices in the first quarter, the weakening trend may continue.

Regional price differences widen

The fluctuation range of peanut prices continued to expand in 2025. Among them, the price of old peanuts in producing areas fluctuated at a low level during the year and then rose, but after the new peanuts were put on the market, the trend of regional differentiation expanded. Specifically, after new peanuts were gradually launched from August 2025, their prices opened high and went low, and the supply in this production season continued to expand. Due to the impact of weather in Henan, the harvest of wheat stubble peanuts in Henan producing areas was not completed until early November. The delayed listing and the unsatisfactory quality of some peanuts led to a decline in prices. The purchase price of Baisha common peanuts in Zhumadian once dropped below 7,000 CNY/ton. Vendors and other links in the Northeast region were enthusiastic about stocking up, and the price rose significantly despite the quality being inferior to that in Henan.

According to the statistics from Zhuochuang Information as of December 31, the average price of ordinary white sand peanut kernels in Zhumadian in 2025 was 8,238 CNY/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 7.04%; the average price of ordinary white sand peanut kernels in Fuxin was 8,525 CNY/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 6.96%; the average price of oil-bearing peanuts in Shandong was 7,627 CNY/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 7.02%.

In particular, after a large quantity of new peanuts hit the market in September 2025, the quality of new peanuts in Fuxin was relatively good, with plump kernels, making it a bumper harvest year. However, there were certain differences in the quality of peanuts in Zhumadian. Although the plumpness was better than that in normal years, problems such as spotted skins and black streaks occurred frequently. The price difference between the two regions gradually widened to 2,000 CNY per ton, which was the largest price difference in nearly five years.

Overall supply is slightly loose

In the 2025 production season, the destocking speed of new peanuts varies slightly across different regions. In Northeast China, due to the delayed listing of peanuts in Henan, the initial shipment speed increased compared with the same period last year, while the shipment speed in Henan slowed down. As of the end of December, Zhuochuang Information estimated that the proportion of remaining peanuts in Henan producing area was about 61.48%, an increase of 3.94 percentage points year-on-year; that in Liaoning was about 48.00%, a decrease of 17.10 percentage points year-on-year; that in Jilin was about 68.50%, a decrease of 15 percentage points year-on-year; and that in Shandong was about 62.7%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points year-on-year.

However, at present, some of the goods that traders in Shandong, Henan and other places transferred from the Northeast in the early stage have not been fully consumed, and some are waiting to handle seed fruits or seed rice. Moreover, the 2025 production season in the Northeast is a year of bumper harvest. It should be noted that the overall trading of commercial rice is slow, and there is some inventory pressure.

Oil-used peanuts are continuously consumed, and commodities are purchased on demand.

After entering December, some large oil factories have successively entered the market to purchase raw materials, and the consumption speed of oil materials has accelerated. However, oil factories mainly intend to purchase high-quality goods and control the quality. As raw materials arrive one after another, the start-up and pressing of oil factories have increased, and oil peanuts have become the main consumption channel.

Zhuo Chuang Information statistics show that in 2025, some large-scale oil factories unloaded about 895,200 tons of raw materials, a year-on-year decrease of 16.17%. The Spring Festival of the Year of the Horse falls relatively late, so the time for oil factories to stop production and stop purchasing before the festival may be later than in previous years. However, the potential supply of oil-use rice is sufficient, so oil factories may not need to raise prices for purchases.

However, at the same time, wholesale markets have been replenishing stocks in appropriate quantities when prices are low. According to statistics from Zhuochuang Information, after the new peanuts came on the market from September to December 2025, the arrival volume of some large-scale wholesale markets was approximately 149,900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.79%; the shipment volume was about 100,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 146.52%, and shipments have recovered from the low level of the same period last year. Nevertheless, affected by the consumption environment, wholesale markets mainly operate on a "receive and ship immediately" basis, with an appropriate amount of early inventory waiting to be consumed. As the Lunar New Year approaches, wholesale markets may still have a wave of stock replenishment demand. In the early stage after the Spring Festival, there may still be small-batch stock replenishment for business resumption, but the purchasing time may be short, and it is difficult for the purchase volume to achieve a breakthrough.

It is expected that the price of peanuts may continue to show a weak trend in the first quarter.

To sum up, before the Spring Festival, there will still be a wave of shipments of commercial peanut kernels from traders in the production areas. However, the inventory is relatively sufficient, and the momentum for downstream demand to rise may be insufficient. In some parts of the northeast region, the enthusiasm of stockholders to offer goods has increased slightly, but as the festive atmosphere gradually becomes stronger, the extent of price decline will be temporarily limited. If the price is too low, farmers and peddlers may enter the Spring Festival state in advance, and transactions will gradually stop. However, in the early stage after the festival, there may be an appropriate amount of shipments when the wholesale market makes a small amount of restocking. Nevertheless, the inventory in the production areas is relatively sufficient, and the loose supply situation may affect the enthusiasm of downstream restocking.

Meanwhile, the market trading hours after the Spring Festival will be shorter than in previous years, and peanut prices may come under supply pressure again, showing a weak adjustment trend. In addition, attention should be paid to changes in Senegal's export tariffs. From a timing perspective, the possibility of a large quantity of Senegalese peanuts arriving at ports by the end of the first quarter is low.

To sum up, it is initially expected that the price of peanuts in the first quarter of 2026 may rise slightly in stages and then decline narrowly, maintaining a weak overall trend. It is expected that the price range of high-quality Baisha peanuts in Zhumadian area may be 6,700-7,400 CNY/ton, and the purchasing price of ordinary Baisha peanuts in Liaoning area may be 8,800-9,400 CNY/ton.

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