Macroeconomics
1. [Taxation] The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that, effective April 1, 2026, the value-added tax (VAT) export rebate for photovoltaic and other products will be abolished. From April 1, 2026 to December 31, 2026, the VAT export rebate rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6%; and from January 1, 2027, the VAT export rebate for battery products will be abolished. For products subject to consumption tax among the above-mentioned products, the export consumption tax policy will not be adjusted, and the consumption tax refund (exemption) policy will continue to apply. The applicable export rebate rate for the products listed in this announcement is determined by the export date indicated on the export goods customs declaration form.
2. [University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index] The preliminary January University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in the US was 54, a four-month high, exceeding the expected 53.5. Consumers' inflation expectations for the next year were 4.2%, unchanged from the previous month.
3. [Eurozone Retail Sales] Eurozone retail sales increased by 0.2% month-on-month in November, exceeding the expected 0.10%; and increased by 2.3% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 1.6%.
Plastics and Rubber
1. [PS] Ningbo Liwan's PS plant has four production lines, including three for transparent PS and one for modified PS, with a total capacity of 400,000 tons/year. Current production is at full capacity, with plans to reduce to three lines in mid-January.
2. [PP] Anqing Petrochemical's PP production plant, with a capacity of 300,000 tons/year, has been shut down since January 9th, with plans to restart in late February.
3. [HDPE] During this period (December 26, 2025 - January 8, 2026), the estimated production loss due to PE plant maintenance is approximately 180,900 tons.
4. [Natural Rubber] On January 9th, the natural rubber market in Qingdao showed weak performance, with some traders lowering their prices by 100-200 RMB/ton. The mainstream price for 2024 Yunbao was 15,650-15,850 RMB/ton. The mainstream price for Vietnamese 3L was 15,900-16,100 RMB/ton.
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