Price trend: (9.11-9.19) Fluctuated and strengthened, with a slight increase during the cycle

According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, as of September 19th, spot electrolytic nickel was quoted at 122,950 RMB/ton, a 0.99% increase over the previous period and a 2.14% decrease year-on-year. Since mid-September, nickel prices have fluctuated and tended to be stronger, driven by a balancing act between macroeconomic sentiment and fundamental factors.

Analysis review

Macroeconomics: Intertwined bullish and bearish factors

U.S. economic data was mixed: CPI rose 2.9% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month in August, both of which were the highest since January; but the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in early September surged to 263,000, and the job market may be starting to cool.

Although the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate to the range of 4.00%-4.25%, it did not release a signal of continued easing, causing the US dollar to rebound to above 97.2.

In terms of policy, Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining had not yet affected nickel supply; China had canceled some Russian nickel import subsidies, but due to Russia's deepening dependence on China, the actual impact was limited.

Supply side: Ample supply and high inventory suppressed prices

The supply at the mining end remained loose, the Philippine nickel ore was increasing in volume, the supply was abundant, and the mine quotations were firm; the supervision at the Indonesian mining end was tightening, and the domestic trade benchmark price in September (Phase II) rose by $0.2-0.3, but the supply remained loose.

Global inventories continued to accumulate to new highs. LME nickel inventories surged by 5,292 tons to 228,2444 tons, while Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventories increased by 3,732 tons to 252,843 tons. Global total inventory levels were already at historical highs, reflecting the continued severity of oversupply, which continued to suppress price increases.

The latest data released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) shows that from January to July 2025, global refined nickel production was 2.2376 million tons and consumption was 1.9934 million tons, resulting in a supply surplus of 244,300 tons.

Demand side: seasonal improvement but overall weakness

In the stainless steel sector, steel mills increased production during the traditional peak season of September and October, supporting demand for ferronickel. The benchmark price of stainless steel was quoted at 13,092.50 RMB/ton on September 19th, a slight increase of 0.29% during the week. Demand for ternary batteries in the new energy sector remained weak overall, with the increasing share of lithium iron phosphate batteries suppressing nickel demand. However, demand for nickel sulfate showed a temporary recovery. Demand in the alloy electroplating sector remained relatively stable.

Market outlook

Nickel prices are expected to remain volatile, with upward space significantly suppressed by high inventories and oversupply.

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