Price trend

According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, lithium carbonate has recently been experiencing a weak and volatile market, once again approaching its cost point. As of September 9th, the SunSirs benchmark price for battery-grade lithium carbonate was 74,033 RMB/ton, a 6.72% increase from the previous month and a 7.69% decrease from the previous year. The SunSirs benchmark price for industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 71,966 RMB/ton, a 5.32% increase from the previous month and a 7.5% decrease from the previous year.

The supply-demand relationship had improved, but inventory pressure remained

Demand was rebounding seasonally, with ferrous lithium phosphate material production expected to hit a new high in September, marking five consecutive months of month-on-month growth. Energy storage battery demand remained at full capacity.

Adequate supply-side capacity

A new 40,000-ton Qinghai SaltLake project commenced production in June, and a pyroxene production line at a lithium salt plant in Sichuan entered its ramp-up phase. Despite the accelerated exit of high-cost production capacity (partial shutdowns at Australian hard rock lithium mines and Jiangxi mica mines), the industry's overall operating rate remained high, and supply-side resilience remained strong.

Market drivers: policy disturbances and cost competition

In the short term, price fluctuations are affected by supply-side policy disturbances. The suspension of production at CATL's Lianxiawo Mine in Jiangxi Province triggered market concerns about supply contraction, driving a price rebound in August. However, as the market realized that the suspension had limited impact and expectations of resumption of production emerged, sentiment gradually cooled.

The cost structure reshaped the market competition landscape: Lithium extraction from Saltlakes had shown strong resilience in the downward price cycle due to its low-cost advantage, and its supply share had further increased. The increase in low-cost supply had further suppressed the room for price rebound, forcing high-cost mines to close and accelerating the industry's clearance.

Future outlook:

The lithium carbonate data analyst of SunSirs believes that lithium carbonate is temporarily in the painful period of clearing production capacity, and the price will fluctuate repeatedly around the cost line. It is still necessary to pay attention to market changes and relevant policies.

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