According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of corrugated paper continued to rise last week. On September 5, 2025, the average ex factory price of 140g corrugated paper was 2,740 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.33% compared to the average price on August 31.

In terms of upstream raw materials: Last week, the price of waste paper in Zhejiang region rose again, and the price of waste paper in domestic paper mills has also increased. On September 5, 2025, the average purchase price of A-grade waste yellow board paper in Zhejiang region was 1,676 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.07% compared to the average price on August 31. Recently, the expected recycling volume of packaging stations is relatively low, and the inventory of waste paper is running at a low level, so the supply is relatively average. However, the paper mills have been operating steadily and showing a positive demand for waste paper. The paper mills have a strong intention to increase their purchasing prices, which has led to a continued rise in waste paper prices.

Supply side: The current inventory of corrugated paper is showing a decreasing trend. As of August 27th, the inventory of corrugated paper enterprises in China was 297,400 tons, a decrease of 32.83% from the end of last month. Recently, with the announcement of the shutdown of the six major bases of Shanying Paper Industry from September 29th to October 6th, it is expected to reduce production by about 100,000 tons in the future. This has provided some support for the price increase.

On the demand side: Currently, large-scale paper mills have successively released price increase plans for September, and the market maintains a price increase atmosphere, but small and medium-sized manufacturers are mainly adopting a wait-and-see attitude. As the traditional peak season of the market approaches, orders for Mid Autumn Festival and National Day may be released one after another, and downstream packaging factory orders are expected to increase. Trading may accelerate, and there is a positive expectation for demand.

The paper analyst of SunSirs believes that the market still has upward momentum due to the impact of rising waste paper prices and price increase letters from large-scale paper mills. If the recovery of terminal demand during Mid Autumn Festival and National Day falls short of expectations, coupled with the pre consumption of some demand, there may be downward pressure in the future market, and it is expected that the price of corrugated paper will remain stable with a strong trend in the short term.

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