According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of refined gasoline and diesel in Shandong province fluctuated and fell mainly last week. As of the end of last week, the domestic price of 92# gasoline was 7,626.33 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.27%; The domestic price of 0# diesel is 6,537.5 RMB/ton, with a price trend decline of 0.56%.

Cost aspect: Crude oil market fluctuates and refined oil products change accordingly

The crude oil market prices mainly fluctuated at low levels. As of the 4th, the settlement price of the October WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $63.48 per barrel, and the settlement price of the November Brent crude oil futures contract was $66.99 per barrel. The crude oil market is influenced by both long and short factors. On the one hand, geopolitical factors remain one of the important factors affecting the crude oil market, and the Russia Ukraine issue has led to a strong operation of the crude oil market. On the other hand, Saudi crude oil may increase production, leading to an increase in US crude oil inventories. In addition, with the end of the peak oil season in the US, the global economic outlook and oil demand are not optimistic, putting pressure on crude oil market prices. The crude oil market directly affects the domestic refined oil market, and the domestic gasoline and diesel prices remain low.

Supply side: Shandong's local refineries start production to increase supply of refined oil products

Recently, some facilities in the local refining industry have increased their operating loads, resulting in a slight increase in operating rates. The average operating rate of Shandong's local refining industry is around 54%, while the operating rate of the country's main refineries remains at around 85%. The supply of refined oil from local refining has slightly increased, and the supply of gasoline and diesel in Shandong has increased compared to before, leading to a slight decline in the market for gasoline and diesel in Shandong.

Demand side: The overall market for gasoline and diesel remains at a low level, mainly driven by rigid demand

In terms of gasoline, recent activities such as residents' travel have been normal, and coupled with the recent fluctuations in the crude oil market, the wait-and-see atmosphere in the domestic gasoline market has intensified, resulting in further setbacks in transactions. In addition, the increasing popularity of new energy vehicles has led to lower than expected demand performance, resulting in a volatile and downward trend in the gasoline market. In terms of diesel, there has been an increase in rainy weather recently, which has weakened terminal demand. With the end of summer harvest, agricultural oil consumption has decreased compared to before, while infrastructure and logistics are relatively normal. After entering September, the fishing ban in the north will end, and there will be an increase in ship oil compared to before. The decline in the diesel market is relatively small.

The peak season for traditional fuel consumption in the United States is coming to an end in the near future, and supply side risks have not been eliminated. International oil prices will mainly fluctuate weakly in the short term, which will weaken the cost support for the domestic refined oil market. From a domestic perspective, the operating rate of refineries in the short term has continued to increase, and the supply of refined oil products has become loose. In addition, there has been no significant increase in gasoline demand, resulting in mainly fluctuating and declining gasoline market prices; The demand for diesel has increased compared to before, and diesel prices may fluctuate mainly in the later period.

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