According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from September 1st to 5th, the price of MTBE rose from 5,007 RMB/ton to 5,036 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 0.50% during the period, remaining unchanged on a month on month basis and a year-on-year decrease of 16.30%. The domestic MTBE market has experienced slight fluctuations, with several large MTBE production enterprises in Shandong and other regions concentrating on delivering export orders for September. Due to the factor of export port consolidation, the available spot quantity in the domestic market has significantly decreased. In addition, some downstream operators have a demand for spot purchases, so the mentality of manufacturers to sell at low prices is obvious, and prices are mainly actively pushed up. However, with the rise to a temporary high point, downstream resistance has emerged, and transactions have gradually weakened.
On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: The international oil price has fallen, and the main negative factors are: there are reports that OPEC+is considering continuing to increase production in October, increasing the risk of oversupply, and the traditional fuel consumption peak season in the United States is coming to an end, jointly putting pressure on the oil market. As of September 4th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for the November contract was $66.99 per barrel.
On the demand side and downstream gasoline side, international crude oil futures fluctuated downward, and due to the impact of large-scale events, logistics and transportation in the province and surrounding areas were not smooth. End users and traders had weak ordering intentions, and only a few users bought at low prices, which was difficult to effectively boost the refined oil market. Refineries mainly focused on shipping volume. The MTBE demand side is affected by bearish factors.
Supply side: Heilongjiang Xinrui Chemical and Huangshi TianRMB plants have shut down, resulting in a decrease in plant operating rates. The short-term domestic MTBE supply is affected by favorable factors.
As of the close on September 4th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $12.3/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $670.12-672.12/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by $7.75/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $946.99-947.49/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $17/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $835.64-836/ton (235.95-236.05 cents/gallon).
In the future, it is predicted that raw material prices will slightly decrease, but cost pressure still exists. Manufacturers are still in a loss making situation, and substantial positive news is lacking. It is expected that there will still be a slight downward space in the market. After reaching a certain low point, the enthusiasm of operators to enter the market will increase. The MTBE analyst from SunSirs believes that the domestic MTBE market is mainly characterized by narrow fluctuations.
If you have any enquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.
