Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, as of September 1, the spot price of 3128B grade cotton lint was 15,479 RMB/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.59%.

Analysis review

Domestically, cotton fundamentals remained largely unchanged last week. Cotton production in Xinjiang remained stable, with a small amount of hand-picked cotton entering the market in southern Xinjiang, though purchase prices were not yet representative. Production increases in Xinjiang were expected to continue. National commercial cotton inventories showed a downward trend. As of August 29, 2025, total commercial cotton inventories stood at 1.547 million tons, a decrease of 165,600 tons from the previous week.

Downstream cotton yarn sales had improved, and while most companies continued to offer small price increases, downstream acceptance was insufficient, impacting sales. The textile peak season had yet to begin, and yarn shipments were slow, hindering textile companies' enthusiasm for cotton procurement. Finished product inventories had generally declined, maintaining overall low inventory levels. However, new orders remained limited, hindering any improvement in production profit margins.

Internationally, international cotton prices fluctuated downward last week, weighed down by weak demand and a rebounding US dollar, leading to a quiet market. Contracts for US cotton exports for the 2025/26 crop increased last week, reaching 41,600 tons in the third week of August, an increase of 20,200 tons from the previous week. Positive export data stabilized the market. External markets declined over the weekend, reversing gains from the previous day.

Future outlook:

The ongoing destocking of cotton stocks was keeping cotton supply tight in the short term. However, due to strong expectations for a bumper cotton harvest in the new year and the fact that the peak season had yet to begin, downstream companies were cautious about restocking.The market is in a game of bulls and bears, and cotton prices are expected to remain range-bound in the short term.

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