Aluminum prices fluctuated sideways in August  

Aluminum prices fluctuated sideways in August. According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, as of August 25, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in East China was 20,793.33 RMB/ton, up 0.95% from the average price of 20,596.67 RMB/ton on August 1.

Fundamentals of aluminum ingots in August

On the supply side, with the gradual release of a small amount of replacement capacity, domestic primary aluminum production achieved a slight increase, and the overall supply structure remained stable. Downstream demand showed a divergent trend of "restocking momentum had rebounded, but spot purchases had encountered difficulties." On the one hand, some companies started preparing for the peak season, stockpiling inventory in advance to meet the expected rebound in subsequent orders, driving a slight recovery in the overall operating rate of the domestic aluminum downstream. On the other hand, affected by the rebound in aluminum prices, the shipment volume of end products had once again come under pressure and declined, and the willingness of processed material companies to purchase spot goods had significantly weakened, which had put certain constraints on the pace of short-term demand release.

According to specific data, the overall operating rate of leading domestic downstream aluminum processing companies increased by 0.8 percentage points month-on-month to 59.5% last week, indicating a moderate and sustainable market recovery. Each sub-sector showed highlights: Primary aluminum alloys: The operating rate increased by 1.0 percentage points month-on-month to 56.6%, with a significant increase in primary aluminum procurement by leading companies, providing strong support for industry operations.

Aluminum Sheet and Strip: Benefiting from peak season stocking orders for sub-categories such as can materials and automotive sheet, the operating rate increased by 1.0 percentage point to 65.0%, demonstrating clear demand-side growth momentum.

Aluminum Cable: With the acceleration of the power grid construction cycle, continued demand for terminal delivery continued to increase, and the operating rate increased by 0.8 percentage points month-over-month to 62.6%, indicating a steady recovery in industry sentiment.

Aluminum profiles showed a differentiated recovery, with continued growth in orders from the automotive and photovoltaic sectors, driving a slight increase in the operating rate by 1.0 percentage point to 50.5%. However, demand for architectural profiles remained sluggish, hindering the overall recovery.

Aluminum foil: Driven by the restart of air conditioning foil production lines and a rebound in demand for decorative foil, the operating rate rebounded by 0.9 percentage points to 69.3%, making it a strong performer among downstream segments.

Recycled aluminum: Facing the dual pressures of "weak demand in the off-season + continued inverted profits", coupled with policy shocks that forced some manufacturers to proactively cut production, the operating rate fell slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 53.0%, and the industry is under great operating pressure in the short term.

Looking ahead to the future market, it is expected that areas with strong demand certainty, such as aluminum cables, aluminum plates and strips, will continue to recover in late August; with the approach of the traditional consumption peak season of "Golden September and Silver October", the demand for aluminum foil and aluminum profiles (especially industrial profiles) is expected to be further stimulated, and the overall recovery pace of the domestic aluminum downstream market may gradually accelerate.

Macroeconomic factors influencing August:

Overseas factors

Impact of U.S. tariff policy: On August 18, the United States expanded the scope of import tariffs on steel and aluminum, covering aluminum intermediate products, semi-finished products and structural parts. Although China’s aluminum product exports to the United States accounted for only 6% (data from June 2025), it suppressed market sentiment in short time, and the Shanghai aluminum price once fell to around 20,500 RMB/ton.

Geopolitical disruptions disrupt supply expectations: On August 25, Russia suspended spot aluminum ingot exports to Italy due to a diplomatic incident, sending aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange surging 4%, highlighting the impact of international supply chain stability on prices.

Last Friday, a dovish shift ignited the market, sharply increasing expectations for a September rate cut and sending the US dollar plummeting.

Future outlook:

In the short term, aluminum prices in August are expected to fluctuate and tend to be stronger, with an expected range of 20,500-21,100 RMB/ton.

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