The domestic refined oil price adjustment window opened at 24:00 on August 26th, and the retail price of refined oil is about to be lowered. In 2025, the retail price of refined oil has experienced six upward adjustments, six downward adjustments, and four stranded adjustments. During this cycle, the crude oil market fluctuated at a low level, and the crude oil change rate remained negative. The retail price adjustment of refined oil in 2025 will encounter the "seventh" downward adjustment.

Entering this pricing cycle, the international oil price market is fluctuating at a low level. As of the 25th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States is $64.80 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures is $68.80 per barrel. During this round of price adjustment cycle, crude oil prices were mainly volatile. On the one hand, OPEC+ announced a cumulative increase in production of 2.3 million barrels per day by September, marking the organization's exit from its plan to reduce production by over 2.2 million barrels per day one year ahead of schedule. This news is bearish for the oil market. On the other hand, the tense situation in Europe and the upcoming peace talks have led to a weakening of geopolitical supply risks, negative global macro data, and the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September, making it difficult for the crude oil market to have positive support. As of the 26th, the change rate of crude oil varieties on the tenth working day was -4.20%, corresponding to a reduction of 180 RMB per ton of gasoline and 175 RMB per ton of diesel in China, equivalent to 89# 0.13 RMB, 92# 0.14 RMB, 95# 0.15 RMB, and 0# 0.15 RMB per liter. The retail price of refined oil products in this round will be lowered.

In terms of gasoline, there has been little change in the operating rate of local refineries recently. The average operating rate of local refineries in Shandong is around 52%, while the operating rate of major refineries nationwide has risen to around 84%. The supply of refined oil from local refineries has slightly increased. Recently, residents' travel and other activities have been normal, coupled with the recent fluctuations in the crude oil market, the wait-and-see atmosphere in the domestic gasoline market has intensified, and transactions have further been hit. In addition, the increasing popularity of new energy vehicles has led to lower than expected demand performance, resulting in a volatile and downward trend in the gasoline market.

In terms of diesel: Recently, the supply side of the diesel market has been normal, while demand has increased due to the increase in cloudy and rainy weather in China, which has weakened terminal demand. With the end of summer harvest, agricultural oil consumption has decreased compared to before. In addition, diesel inventory in July was 1.1477 million tons, an increase of 11.37% month on month. Infrastructure and logistics are relatively normal, and the diesel market is fluctuating at a low level.

Looking ahead, the recent peak season for traditional fuel consumption in the United States is coming to an end, and supply side risks have not been eliminated. International oil prices are mainly experiencing weak fluctuations in the short term, which weakens the cost support for the domestic refined oil market. From a domestic perspective, the short-term operating rate of refineries has not changed much, and the supply of refined oil products is loose. In addition, there has been no significant increase in gasoline demand, and the gasoline market prices are mainly fluctuating and falling; The demand for diesel has declined compared to before, and diesel prices may continue to fluctuate at a low level in the later period.

If you have any enquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.