According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of locally refined gasoline and diesel in Shandong was mainly volatile in mid August. As of the 22nd, the domestic price of 92# gasoline was 7,803.17 RMB/ton, with a price decline of 0.67% in mid August; The domestic price of 0# diesel is 6,656.33 RMB/ton, with a price trend decline of 0.18%.

Cost aspect: The decline in crude oil prices has led to a decrease in refined oil products

The crude oil market prices fluctuated mainly. As of the 21st, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $63.52 per barrel, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was $67.67 per barrel. The crude oil market is affected by negative factors. On the one hand, OPEC+announced a cumulative production increase of 2.3 million barrels per day until September, marking the organization's exit from the plan to reduce production by over 2.2 million barrels per day one year ahead of schedule. This news is bearish on the oil market. On the other hand, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East affects the oil market, and the uncertainty of US tariff policies makes the global economic outlook and oil demand pessimistic, putting pressure on crude oil market prices. The crude oil market directly affects the domestic refined oil market, and the domestic gasoline and diesel prices remain low.

Supply side: Shandong's local refining operation is normal, and there is little change in refined oil products

Recently, there has been little change in the operating rate of local refineries. The average operating rate of Shandong's local refineries is around 52%, and the operating rate of the country's main refineries remains at around 84%. The supply of refined oil products from local refineries has slightly increased, but the operating rate of Shandong's local refineries has remained at a medium low level, providing some support for the refined oil market. The supply of gasoline and diesel in Shandong has not changed much.

Demand side: The overall market for gasoline and diesel is declining, with a focus on essential needs

In terms of gasoline, recent activities such as residents' travel have been normal, and coupled with the recent fluctuations in the crude oil market, the wait-and-see atmosphere in the domestic gasoline market has intensified, resulting in further setbacks in transactions. In addition, the increasing popularity of new energy vehicles has led to lower than expected demand performance, resulting in a volatile and downward trend in the gasoline market. In terms of diesel, there has been an increase in rainy weather recently, which has weakened terminal demand. With the end of summer harvest, agricultural oil consumption has decreased compared to before. In addition, diesel inventory in July was 1.1477 million tons, a month on month increase of 11.37%. Infrastructure and logistics are relatively normal, and the diesel market is fluctuating at a low level.

The peak season for traditional fuel consumption in the United States is coming to an end in the near future, and supply side risks have not been eliminated. International oil prices will mainly fluctuate weakly in the short term, which will weaken the cost support for the domestic refined oil market. From a domestic perspective, the short-term operating rate of refineries has not changed much, and the supply of refined oil products is loose. In addition, there has been no significant increase in gasoline demand, and the gasoline market prices are mainly fluctuating and falling; The demand for diesel has declined compared to before, and diesel prices may continue to fluctuate at a low level in the later period.

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