Price trend

According to the SunSirs’commodity market analysis system, domestic ethanol prices fell to 5,660 RMB/ton from August 4th to 7th, a 0.29% decrease over the period, a 0.14% increase month-over-month, and a 5.78% decrease year-over-year. Domestic ethanol market prices were weak, with limited overall market transactions and declining factory quotes.

Analysis review

On the cost side, corn spot prices remained weak. With futures prices declining, the overall market sentiment was skewed. While traders in producing areas were showing a slight increase in shipments, downstream buyers remained relatively passive. Ethanol costs provided negative factors for the market.

Secondly, on the demand side, compound fertilizer production capacity utilization was low. On the supply side, edible ethanol production saw minimal fluctuations, with increases exceeding decreases. The Wanli plant, Hongzhan Laha anhydrouscethanol plant, and Fukang plant returned to normal operation, while the Yushu plant and Shandong Qufeng plant both completely shut down. Other plants in East China were operating stably, while the COFCO plant in Guangxi, South China, was shut down. This impact on ethanol supply was mixed.

On the demand side, many liquor factories in some regions had shut down, resulting in limited transactions, mostly for chemical consumption. This was a bearish factor affecting ethanol demand.

Future outlook:

Factory quotations were stable, with transactions at low levels and shipments at high prices struggling. SunSirs’ ethanol analysts predict a weaker ethanol market in the short term.

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