Price trend
According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, from November 17th to 21st, the domestic ethanol price was adjusted to 5,289 RMB/ton, a decrease of 3.74% month-on-month and 4.18% year-on-year. The domestic ethanol market had shown some signs of recovery, with slight differences between regions. Rising raw material corn prices had increased cost support, while supply had decreased in some areas, resulting in limited spot availability and higher factory quotations. Increased operating rates of downstream ethyl acetate plants in some regions had increased demand for ethanol, which was beneficial to the ethanol market.
Market Analysis
From a cost perspective, corn prices rose slightly, while ethanol plants were making purchases based on immediate needs. This weakened the positive factors from ethanol costs for the market.
On the supply side, Northeast China performed exceptionally well, with an overall operating rate as high as 92.43%, significantly higher than the national average. Specifically, major large enterprises in Heilongjiang Province continued to operate at overcapacity, and other factories in the region that had resumed operations were also basically operating at full capacity, jointly driving up the overall operating load in Northeast China. Several previously shut-down enterprises recently resumed production, creating a slightly bearish factor on the ethanol supply side.
On the demand side, downstream ethyl acetate production saw Anhui Huayi and Guangxi Jinyuan plants restart, while Jingmen Qianxin plant experienced a brief shutdown. Yankuang Lunan and Yueyang Changde plants experienced fluctuations, with losses exceeding recoveries, leading to a slight decrease in ethyl acetate capacity utilization. Overall, ethanol demand provided negative factors for the market.
Market Forecast:
According to analysts at SunSirs, the ethanol market is expected to consolidate in the short term.
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