Price trend

According to the analysis of the SunSirs’ market monitoring system, on July 30, the domestic market price of silicon #441 was 10,100 RMB/ton. Compared with July 1 (the market price of silicon #441 was 8,730 RMB/ton), the price increased by 1,370 RMB/ton, an increase of 15.81%.

Analysis review

According to the SunSirs’ commodity market analysis system, the domestic silicon (#441) market experienced a broad upward trend in July. Throughout the month, prices in many regions of the country saw consecutive upward adjustments, and overall market negotiation focus continued to recover. This marked the first consecutive period of market price correction since the beginning of the year. By the end of July, the overall silicon (#441) market price had finally returned to the 10,000 RMB/ton mark, with a monthly price increase of approximately 1,000-1,500 RMB/ton. As of July 30, the reference price of #441 silicon in East China was 10,100-10,300 RMB/ton, the reference price of #441 silicon in Kunming was 10,000-10,300 RMB/ton, the reference price of #441 silicon in Huangpu Port was around 10,100-10,400 RMB/ton, the reference price of #441 silicon in Tianjin was 10,000-10,200 RMB/ton, the reference price of #441 silicon in Sichuan was 9,600-9,800 RMB/ton, and the reference price of #441 silicon in Shanghai was 10,400-10,600 RMB/ton.

Fundamentals

Inventory: Since April, the overall silicon market has been experiencing a slow destocking process. June and July saw positive performance. According to incomplete statistics, as of July 24, the reference inventory level of silicon in major regions was approximately 535,000 tons, a decrease of 77,000 tons from the end of the first quarter. Therefore, overall market inventory pressure has improved.

On the supply side: some silicon companies in the northern region have reduced production, while the southern region has entered the flood season. The overall resumption of production was normal, market supply has decreased in the north and increased in the south, and the overall supply and output have increased.

Demand: As of July 30th, downstream silicone companies of silicone were mainly digesting the previous raw material inventory. In mid-to-late July, the overall production of silicone monomers declined, and the transaction of new orders for high-priced raw materials was average. Polysilicon and aluminum silicon mainly purchased on demand. Entering August, the downstream production start-up expectations have been adjusted back, and the demand for silicone is expected to increase.

Macroeconomic aspects: After the recent "anti-involution and industrial integration" initiative was put forward, the market sentiment of metal silicon has improved, the overall self-discipline of the industry has been improved, vicious competition has been rejected, the mentality of industry players has improved, and macroeconomic news has boosted the market price to recover.

Future outlook:

As of July 30th, the trading atmosphere in the silicon market was mild, the supply and demand were generally stable with small fluctuations, and the overall transmission was acceptable. The silicon data analyst of SunSirs predicts that in the short term, the domestic silicon spot market will mainly adjust its operation. Specifically, more attention should be paid to the changes in supply and demand news and the impact of macro information on the market.

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