Price trend

Last week's hot-rolled coil futures showed a trend of first suppression and then rise. At the beginning of the week, the hot-rolled coil futures market operated weakly, and market sentiment fell slightly. Some traders reported that there was a lack of inquiry orders during the day, and there was still room for negotiation in actual transactions; In the later part of the week, stimulated by favorable macro policies, spot prices continued to rise slightly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of July 11th, the average price of galvanized sheet and coil in the domestic market was 4,072.50 RMB/ton, a slight decrease of 0.12% compared to the beginning of the week.

Analysis review

Fundamentals: as of July 11th, there was not much circulation of galvanized sheet coil resources in the market, and there was not much inventory pressure on spot market merchants. Some merchants were generally more proactive in following up to avoid losses from high priced resources in the early stage. According to the latest data obtained by SunSirs, the overall production rate of galvanized sheet this week was 81.29%; The capacity utilization rate was 62.37%, a decrease of 0.53% from last week; The weekly output was 889,600 tons, a decrease of 7,600 tons from last week; The inventory of steel mills was 466,700 tons, a decrease of 2,700 tons from last week.

In terms of steel mills, Baowu issued an August ordering policy last week, in which the ordering price of galvanized and color coated coils increased by 100 RMB/ton compared to the previous period.

In terms of mentality, according to market feedback, the demand for home appliances and automobiles has declined in July and August, and the current daily cutting and processing volume decreased by 10-15% month on month. Therefore, for futures to rise, the spot market had a relatively small follow-up, and the main focus was still on shipments.

Industry dynamics: In the first half of 2025, the production and sales of automobiles both exceeded 15 million units, achieving a relatively high growth rate of over 10% year-on-year. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 6.968 million and 6.937 million respectively, an increase of 41.4% and 40.3% year-on-year.

Market outlook

Under the off-season demand, price support other than cost was slightly insufficient, and there was pressure to continue rising. SunSirs expects that the price of galvanized sheets and coils may remain stable in the short term.

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