Price trend:

In November, galvanized sheet prices showed a "stepwise decline followed by a slight stabilization at the end of the month," remaining under pressure from supply-demand imbalance throughout the month. At the beginning of the month, influenced by the volatile downward trend in hot rolled coil futures, merchants gradually lowered their quoted prices; towards the end of the month, with the release of some end-user restocking demand, the price decline slowed. According to SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, as of November 28th, the average price of galvanized sheets and coils in the domestic market was 4,140.00 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.25% compared to the beginning of the month.

Factors influencing price fluctuations:

Market inventory remained at a high level, making it difficult to alleviate the pressure of inventory reduction

In November, galvanized sheet inventory consistently remained at a historically high level for the same period, with the destocking process experiencing several twists and turns. At the beginning of the month, total inventory climbed to 1.8493 million tons, an increase of 0.51 million tons compared to the end of October, including 508,900 tons of steel mill inventory and 1.3404 million tons of social inventory, showing a trend of "simultaneous increase in both types of inventory." In the middle of the month, with the release of some speculative demand, inventory began to decline slowly, reaching 1.8386 million tons by November 17th, a decrease of 10,700 tons compared to the beginning of the month. At the end of the month, the inventory continued to decrease, but the magnitude was limited. On November 24th, the total inventory was 1.8283 million tons, only 21,000 tons less than at the beginning of the month, and still approximately 150,000 tons higher than the same period last year.

The inventory structure exhibited two main characteristics: firstly, regional differentiation, with the East China region showing relatively significant inventory reduction due to increased sales at the end of the month, while the northern regions continued to accumulate inventory pressure due to weak demand; secondly, product category differentiation, with inventory of high-end galvanized sheets for new energy vehicles remaining low, while ordinary galvanized sheets for construction accounted for over 60% of the inventory, making destocking extremely difficult.

In November, the capacity utilization rate rose to a relatively high level of 64.05%, with weekly output reaching 913,500 tons. Although December marks the traditional off-season for production, private steel mills were not strongly inclined to reduce production in order to maintain cash flow.  It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will remain in the 62%-63% range, and supply pressure will persist. Only some steel mills in northern China may experience slight production cuts due to environmental restrictions, but this will have a limited impact on overall supply.

The expected peak season demand effect had completely failed to materialize

In November, the demand for galvanized sheets showed a significant divergence, with strong demand in the high-end market and weak demand in the mid-to-low-end market, fully reflecting the characteristics of a traditional off-season.

The supporting sector was concentrated in the new energy vehicle segment: Although national passenger car retail sales decreased by 14% year-on-year from November 1st to 16th, demand for new energy vehicles remained strong. It is estimated that the demand for galvanized sheets used in new energy vehicles reached 630,000 tons in November, a year-on-year increase of 22.3%, accounting for over 11% of the total galvanized sheet production in that month, becoming the only bright spot in demand.

The drag on the market came from traditional sectors such as infrastructure and home appliances: a sharp drop in temperatures in northern regions led to a significant decline in construction site activity, with demand for steel pipes almost coming to a standstill; the home appliance industry had performed poorly in terms of order intake, with some private manufacturing companies reducing production by 30%, directly impacting the demand for low-to-medium-end galvanized sheets.

Exports may decline somewhat.

According to the latest customs data, in October 2025, the export volume of galvanized sheets was 1.2994 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.97% and a year-on-year increase of 11.68%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export volume of galvanized sheets was 11.74 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 10.07%.

The new regulations from the State Taxation Administration, initially planned for official implementation in October, had not yet been heard to be actually enforced. Orders involving fraudulent export declarations continued to be exported in October, and some companies were worried about a potential ban on such practices in the future, leading to a certain degree of urgency in shipping goods during October.

Recently, the price ratio between domestic and international markets remained low, which was conducive to the export of domestic galvanized sheets. Furthermore, the continued decline in domestic galvanized sheet prices in October, coupled with this price advantage, is expected to provide some boost to export orders in October.

In November, domestic galvanized sheet prices continued to fall, providing ongoing support for export orders. However, as the year-end approaches, end-user demand orders in some countries may weaken. Furthermore, the previous surge in export orders due to companies rushing to fulfill orders may have somewhat depleted future demand. Considering all these factors, there is a certain risk of a decline in galvanized sheet exports in November.

Market Forecast:

Overall, in terms of costs, the price of hot rolled coil raw materials fluctuated and weakened; in terms of supply, the capacity utilization rate briefly rebounded to 64.05% within the month, and weekly output increased to 913,500 tons. At the same time, market inventory remained high, making it difficult to alleviate destocking pressure; and demand release fell short of expectations. To promote sales, businesses generally adopted a negotiated pricing strategy, further lowering the market price level. SunSirs predicts that the galvanized sheet and coil market in December will likely maintain a pattern of "weak supply and demand, with prices bottoming out."

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