Ethylene glycol prices fluctuated horizontally 

Ethylene glycol fluctuated horizontally last week. According to data from SunSirs, as of July 11th, the average price of domestic oil based ethylene glycol was 4,405 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.19% from the average price of 4,396.67 RMB/ton on July 1st.

Analysis review

In terms of imported ethylene glycol, on July 11, 2025, the spot contract price of ethylene glycol at the port first strengthened and then weakened with the market, with a trading range of 4,360-4,410 RMB/ton. The intraday basis weakened slightly, with a strong early morning and a weak afternoon. The intraday basis range for next week's spot contract is +62 to +68. As of the closing, the contract basis quotation for next week will be +64 to +70, the contract basis quotation for July will be +65 to +70, and the contract basis quotation for August will be +65 to +68.

The spot price of domestic coal based polyester grade ethylene glycol (bulk, tax included, self pickup) per unit was 3,880-4,100 RMB/ton.

In terms of external ethylene glycol, as of July 10th, the landed price of ethylene glycol in China was 513 US dollars per ton, and the landed price of ethylene glycol in Southeast Asia was 517 US dollars per ton.

Port inventory was relatively low in July

From January to mid February, there was a significant accumulation of ethylene glycol inventory in the port, and from March to April, the port inventory fluctuated horizontally. From May to June 2025, there was a significant decrease in the inventory of ethylene glycol at the main port in East China. As of July 11th, the inventory of ethylene glycol at the port was relatively low. As of July 10th, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the East China main port was 480,600 tons, a decrease of 61,400 tons from the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the East China main port on July 3rd, which was 542,000 tons; Compared to the total inventory of 700,900 tons on April 28th, a decrease of 220,300 tons; Compared to the total inventory of 671,900 tons on March 31st, it decreased by 191,300 tons.

This week's fundamental overview

Last week, domestic ethylene glycol spot prices were weak at first and then strong, with low-level buying being the main trend in the early stage. On Thursday, driven by the overall strong sentiment of the commodity market, prices rose, and on Friday afternoon, there was a slight correction. The focus of external cargo negotiations had slightly shifted upwards.

Supply and demand side: As of July 11th, ethylene glycol was in a tight balance state, and the domestic production rate was relatively stable. Recently, imported goods have arrived at ports relatively less, and port inventories ere at a low level. However, the feedback effect of the downstream industrial chain still existed. As of July 11th, the production rate of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang dropped to below 60%, and the loading load dropped to about 60%. The average polyester production and sales during the week were around 50-60%, and inventory pressure was high.

Cost side: Recently, coal prices have stopped falling and rebounded, with a significant upward trend, providing some support for the cost of coal based ethylene glycol production.

Market outlook

The pricing of the ethylene glycol market returned to fundamental considerations. Due to the decrease in downstream operating rates, the demand for ethylene glycol was relatively weak. Although the port inventory was low, there is an expected concentration of foreign ships arriving at the port in July. Starting from the late July, there will be a significant increase in the arrival of ethylene glycol from foreign ships, mostly concentrates in the Taicang area. It is expected that the  price center of ethylene glycol will mainly be weaker in the short term.

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