In January, ethylene glycol prices stopped falling and fluctuated

In January 2026, the price of ethylene glycol stabilized after a period of decline. According to data from SunSirs, as of January 16th, the average domestic price of oil-based ethylene glycol was 3,808.33 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.45% compared to the average price of 3,864.17 RMB/ton on January 1st.

Regarding ethylene glycol at the port, as of the 16th, port ethylene glycol spot contracts (starting from 500 tons) were trading at a significant discount. In the first half of January, the basis of the spot contract last week remained in the range of -120 to -160 RMB/ton. As of the close of trading, the basis for next week's contract (before December 25th) was quoted at -130 to -125 RMB/ton, the basis for the following week's contract (before January 30th) was quoted at -125 to -120 RMB/ton, the basis for the February contract (before February 25th) was quoted at -90 to -85 RMB/ton, the basis for the March contract (before March 25th) was quoted at -40 to -35 RMB/ton, and the basis for the April contract (before April 25th) was quoted at +5 to +10 RMB/ton.

The domestic spot price for coal-based polyester-grade ethylene glycol (bulk, tax included, ex-factory) was 3,240-3,380 RMB/ton for full truckload deliveries.

Regarding overseas ethylene glycol, as of January 16th, recent shipments were being negotiated and traded at around US$441-443 per ton (CIF).

Ethylene glycol port inventory changes in January 2026:

On January 15, 2026, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in major ports of East China was 728,000 tons, an increase of 68,500 tons compared to the 659,500 tons recorded on December 29, 2025.

Port inventories began to accumulate in early October 2025, reaching their annual peak in mid-December, rising from 355,000 tons to 755,000 tons. Inventories then began to decline in mid-December, falling to 628,000 tons.

Analysis of the reasons for the stabilization and range-bound trading of ethylene glycol in January:

In early to mid-January 2026, ethylene glycol prices stabilized after a period of decline, driven by a complex interplay of factors including cost support, short-term supply disruptions, weak demand during the off-season, high inventory levels, and the release of new production capacity. Spot prices fluctuated within a narrow range of 3,650-3,850 RMB/ton, without showing any clear directional trend.

1. Cost-side support and fluctuations created a price floor.

Crude oil price volatility: In January, international oil prices fluctuated due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and South America. As a significant cost component of ethylene glycol, this provided temporary support to its price, limiting the extent of the decline.

Coal prices remained relatively stable: Coal-based ethylene glycol accounts for a high proportion of domestic production capacity. Although coal prices fluctuated, they had not fallen sharply, providing some support for ethylene glycol prices. However, coal-based ethylene glycol production was still unprofitable, limiting the extent of cost support.

2. Supply side: Short-term contraction and long-term easing coexist, leading to intensified bullish and bearish market dynamics

Overseas plant maintenance and disruptions: Two plants in Taiwan and Southeast Asia, with a combined capacity of 720,000 tons per year, had completely shut down. Some plants in the Middle East had reduced production or undergone maintenance due to cost or geopolitical factors, temporarily reducing import volumes and easing supply pressure.

Domestic new capacity additions and plant restarts: A new 800,000 tons/year plant in South China started operations in early January, and new plants such as BASF Zhanjiang had come online.  Previously idled plants were gradually restarting, maintaining the overall domestic operating rate above 70%. The increasae in supply was clear, and strong expectations of a long-term surplus persisted.

Port inventories continued to accumulate: Ethylene glycol inventories at East China ports continued to increase, and the high inventory levels were suppressing price rebounds.

3. Demand side: The off-season effect, coupled with the approaching Chinese New Year, provided some support from essential demand, but there was insufficient incremental demand.

The polyester industry was showing clear signs of a seasonal slowdown: as the Chinese New Year approaching, downstream polyester companies were entering their traditional off-season. Weaving mill operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces had fallen to around 56%, and polyester production rates were also gradually declining. Furthermore, nearly 10 million tons of polyester production capacity were scheduled for maintenance shutdowns in February, leading to strong expectations of shrinking demand.

Underpinned by essential demand: The polyester industry still had a certain level of essential demand, and some companies stocked up before the holidays, providing some support for ethylene glycol prices and preventing a continuous sharp decline.

4. Market Sentiment and Expectations: A mix of bullish and bearish sentiment, making a volatile market pattern likely to persist.

Geopolitical factors: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, South America, and other regions raised market concerns about supply stability, leading to temporary price rebounds. However, the conflicts hadnot escalated further, limiting the extent of this support.

As the Spring Festival holiday approaching, market participants are adopting a wait-and-see attitude. Traders are actively selling, but buying interest is generally weak. Basis spreads for near-term supplies qwre weakening, and prices are exhibiting wide fluctuations.

If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.