Price trend

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the price of stainless steel slightly decreased last week. As of July 11th, the daily average price of spot 304/2B stainless steel flat plate 1.0 * 1219 * 2438 (tolerance 0.91) was 11,850 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.06% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 8.54%.

Analysis review

According to the price difference analysis tool of SunSirs, the prices of nickel and stainless steel are basically similar. Recently, stainless steel prices have remained stable, while nickel prices have slightly declined.

Last week's stainless steel inventory totaled 1.1574 million tons, an increase of 1.04% compared to last week’s previous week, with both cold and hot rolled inventory rising.

Raw materials: In terms of nickel ore, the price center shifted downward due to the seasonal increase in shipping volume from the Philippines and insufficient downstream demand; However, concerns about Indonesian quotas still existed, and the downward space for nickel mines was limited. The transaction price of nickel iron stabilized and operated within the day, mainly due to weak downstream demand. If it continues to decline, it may open up space for production of high ice nickel.

Supply and demand side: The recent reduction in production of stainless steel has fallen short of expectations, and the impact of anti-dumping tariffs in multiple countries was still fermenting. The impact of tariffs between Indonesia and the United States has led to a revision of downstream demand expectations, with limited spot response and no significant improvement in fundamentals. The position was difficult to say stable. Terminal demand was relatively weak, and the combination of rainy weather and continuous high temperatures resulted in a slow recovery of manufacturing orders. Procurement was mainly focused on replenishing inventory for essential needs, and trade negotiations had expanded, but it was still difficult to increase volume.

Market outlook

As of July 11th, there was macro uncertainty, with little change in fundamentals and still pressure. Nickel iron prices continued to be low, and cost support was weakening. Supply side production cuts were less than expected, and overall demand was weak and destocking was slow. It is expected that the price of stainless steel will be weaker in the short term.

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