Price trend：First rose, then fell, under pressure in the short term (7.1-7.8) 

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, on July 8th, spot electrolytic nickel was quoted at 121,450 RMB/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.21% and a year-on-year decline of 11.98%, continuing to fluctuate weakly.

Reason for fluctuation:

Rising first: The disturbance of Indonesia's nickel ore quota policy (planned to be shortened to 1 year, and later the association strives to maintain it for 3 years), coupled with the decline in LME and domestic inventories, provided short-term support for the rebound of nickel prices.   

Then decline: Increased macro risk aversion (Trump tariff threat)+weak demand (stainless steel off-season, new energy substitution effect), suppressing rebound momentum.   

Macro perspective: long and short intertwined, dominated by Federal Reserve policies and trade risks

Domestically:

The manufacturing PMI for June was 49.7% (two consecutive months of recovery), and the new orders index returned to the expansion range, indicating a marginal improvement in the manufacturing outlook, but it has not yet been transmitted to nickel demand.   

The China Europe Strategic Dialogue is based on cooperation and has not yet had a direct impact on nickel trade.   

Overseas:

The expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has cooled down: June's non farm payroll data exceeded expectations (adding 147,000 people and reducing the unemployment rate to 4.1%), traders reduced their bets on interest rate cuts in July and September, and the strengthening of the US dollar suppressed metal prices.   

Trump's tariff threat: plans to impose 25% -40% tariffs on multiple countries (including nickel rich countries such as Indonesia and South Africa), which will take effect on August 1st. Market risk aversion is heating up, and the macro outlook is bearish on nickel prices. Indonesia has stated that as part of its tariff negotiations with the United States, it has proposed joint investment in a key mineral project. Involving the electric vehicle ecosystem related to nickel and other materials.

Supply side: Indonesian policy disturbance+loose mining side, cost declined

Indonesia's nickel ore quota policy game: The government plans to shorten the quota cycle from 3 years to 1 year, but the Association of Nickel Miners (APNI) strongly opposes and demands to maintain it for 3 years. Policy uncertainty will support nickel prices in the short term.   

Philippine nickel ore supply increases: With the end of the rainy season, shipments have rebounded and nickel ore inventories have accumulated at Chinese ports.

Cost reduced: Indonesia's nickel ore domestic trade benchmark price in July decreased by 1.81% -1.84%. The price of nickel ore in the Philippines has weakened (NI1.3% CIF 45-47 US dollars per wet ton, NI1.5% CIF 58-61 US dollars per wet ton), and the marginal profit margin of smelting has improved.

Inventory changes: LME nickel inventory decreased by 1,386 tons to 204,006 tons during the cycle, and domestic Shanghai nickel inventory decreased by 388 tons to 20,833 tons during the cycle. Global explicit inventory has decreased, but the surplus pattern has not changed.

Demand side: Weakness in both lines, obvious off-season characteristics

Stainless steel (accounting for over 70% of nickel demand):

Low season suppression: The high temperature in July suppressed construction and manufacturing activities, resulting in slow depletion of social inventory.   

Export decline: Stainless steel exports in May decreased by 2.56% month on month and 4.66% year-on-year (due to the impact of anti-dumping policies).   

Weak price rebound: On July 8th, the benchmark price of stainless steel was 12,887.5 RMB/ton (up 0.88% weekly), but due to the expectation of steel mills reducing production, there is limited support for nickel demand.

New energy (ternary battery):

Policy benefits: Subsidies for new energy vehicles continue or stimulate demand for ternary batteries, but the increase in the proportion of lithium iron phosphate LFP batteries (cost advantage) weakens nickel consumption growth.

Market outlook: weak oscillation, the center shifted downward

In the short term (July): Indonesia's policy disturbance, inventory decline, and cost support have boosted prices, but the off-season demand and oversupply have hindered the upward trend. It is expected that nickel prices will remain within a range of fluctuations.

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