In late June, the domestic ABS market still maintained an upward trend, and the spot prices of some grades still had a decent increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of June 23, the average price of ABS sample products was 10,662.50 RMB/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of+0.35% compared to early June.

Supply level: Recently, the load of the domestic ABS industry has been flat, with the overall load level maintaining at 64% in the middle. The average weekly output remains unchanged at around 120,000 tons, and the inventory position of aggregation enterprises remains stable at over 200,000 tons, with sufficient supply maintained on site. Meanwhile, as the production capacity of new facilities in Daqing Petrochemical approaches, the industry's supply side support is being somewhat suppressed. However, companies such as Haijiang Chemical continue to carry out maintenance tasks, and there is a trend of tightening supply in some areas. Overall, the long-term loose supply pattern in the ABS market remains unchanged, and current inventory is relatively controllable. The supply side provides average support for ABS spot prices.

Cost factor: In late June, the upstream three materials of ABS showed mixed trends, but the amplitude was relatively narrow, which limited the support for ABS cost side changes. In terms of acrylonitrile, the Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Plant was successfully put into operation last week, with an increase in supply. Supported by the increase in raw material costs, the spot market price of acrylonitrile remained basically stable. In the short term, there is no pressure on factory inventory, but there is a lack of growth space in demand, and there is a risk of a decline in acrylonitrile prices in the future.

Butadiene has been fluctuating upwards recently. Crude oil prices have risen, and the overall macro situation is improving. The downstream synthetic rubber market is performing well, and the spot price of butadiene has risen under the dual benefits. The ex factory prices of mainstream domestic production enterprises have generally increased. However, the overall intention of downstream procurement is biased towards rigid demand, and the lack of demand support limits the increase. The market has a strong supply-demand game mentality, and it is expected that the short-term trend will mainly fluctuate within a certain range.

Styrene has also received remote positive news from the strengthening of international oil prices. However, the production of pure benzene has rebounded, and the supply is relatively wide. Coupled with the restart of some styrene plants, the output and capacity utilization have both increased month on month, indicating loose supply. In addition, the overall operating rate of downstream 3S is weak, with low profit contraction and high finished product inventory, which has dragged down the demand for styrene. It is expected that styrene will maintain a high volatility trend in the short term.

In terms of demand: Recently, the load of downstream ABS factories in the ABS terminal sector has generally remained flat. The current market is gradually entering the traditional off-season, and terminal enterprises are maintaining a strong demand for supplementary orders. However, the recent geopolitical deterioration has had a stronger impact, and concerns have driven up international crude oil prices, with ABS supported by remote raw materials. At the same time, the China US talks released macro positive news, which had a dual impact on the sentiment of industry players in the market, driving some short positions to be replenished and slightly improving the flow rate of goods supply. However, the inventory level within the venue is still relatively high, and the supply continues to be loose, leaving ample room for turnover within the venue. Overall, the demand side has limited support and improvement for the ABS market.

Future forecast

In early June, the domestic ABS market fluctuated and rose. The prices of the three upstream materials have fluctuated, and the production load of ABS polymerization plants has basically remained flat, with a narrow increase in demand. Business analysts believe that ABS has been mainly affected by remote raw materials and market concerns recently, which has stimulated some orders to enter the market. However, the strong supply and weak demand pattern in the industry has long dragged down spot prices, coupled with the off-season for consumption. It is expected that the ABS market may return to consolidation in the short term.

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