According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, on June 9, spot electrolytic nickel was quoted at 124,133 RMB/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.40%, showing a fluctuating upward trend. The benchmark price of domestic nickel ore in Indonesia is firm, the discount at the mine end remains stable, and the downward space is limited.

Macro: US policy disturbance, non-agricultural data exceeds expectations

1. Steel and aluminum tariffs increase: The United States raised steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50%, and policy uncertainty may affect the flow of global metal trade.

2. Strong job market: The United States added 139,000 non-agricultural jobs in May (expected 130,000), and the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%. Hourly wages increased by 0.4% month-on-month (previous value 0.2%), and the year-on-year growth rate was 3.9%, and inflationary pressure still exists. Trump called on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 100 basis points, but strong data may delay expectations of easing.

Supply side: Strong ore prices vs. overcapacity

Nickel ore supply is still volatile. The main mining areas in the Philippines have gradually emerged from the influence of the rainy season, but the shipping volume is still affected to a certain extent. The benchmark price of domestic nickel ore in Indonesia is relatively strong. The premium and discount pricing of nickel ore in June is basically stable, and the subsequent downward space is limited.

Global inventory changes: LME nickel inventory fell by 288 tons per week (to 199,092 tons), and domestic Shanghai nickel inventory fell by 865 tons per week (to 21,192 tons). The oversupply pattern has not been reversed.

Capacity expansion: Macquarie analysts pointed out that the market is already in a state of oversupply. Several nickel projects in Indonesia are about to be put into production. Macquarie expects that the oversupply will continue until 2027-2028.

Demand side: Stainless steel is sluggish, and new energy support is insufficient

Stainless steel market: On June 6, the spot price of stainless steel was 13,175 RMB/ton, which was the same as the beginning of the month. Some manufacturers in China and India reduced production, but the pressure of accumulated inventory has not been eliminated, and terminal demand is sluggish.

New energy field: Automakers have shifted their focus and have vigorously built lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery factories, and the growth rate of demand for ternary batteries (NMC) has slowed down.

Forecast for the future market: Indonesian ore prices are supported, but demand is slowing down, and inventory pressure has hindered the upward movement of nickel prices. It is expected that nickel prices will remain in a range of fluctuations.

If you have any enquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.