Last week, the cotton market fluctuated overall. The domestic futures market lacks clear news guidance, and the volatile situation continues. According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, as of June 9, the spot price of 3128B grade lint was 14,623 RMB/ton, up 0.29% week-on-week.

Domestic: Commercial inventory on the supply side continues to be reduced, cotton resources are gradually decreasing, and in terms of new cotton growth, as the temperature gradually rises, most cotton fields in Xinjiang have budded. At present, the new year's cotton production maintains a loose expectation, and the terminal consumption is weak under the influence of tariffs. In the short term, it may still maintain a narrow range of fluctuations.

Demand: After the Dragon Boat Festival, the yarn inventory of downstream textile enterprises has accumulated a small amount, and the market's enthusiasm for replenishment has slightly decreased. The operating rate of weaving mills has been gradually reduced, and the yarn inventory has a clear accumulation trend. As of June 6, the operating load of textile enterprises in mainstream regions was 74%, a decrease of 0.40% month-on-month, and the operating rate of textile enterprises has been slightly reduced. The current market is obviously in the off-season.

Internationally: Sufficient rainfall in the United States and India is conducive to the growth and development of cotton, which strengthens the expectation of abundant supply next year, and international cotton prices are under downward pressure. The latest monthly report released by the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) shows that ICAC's forecast for global cotton in 2025/26 remains stable, with cotton production and consumption estimated at about 26 million tons and 25.7 million tons respectively, while the trade volume estimate is raised to 9.7 million tons.

Market Forecast: Overall, the textile market is relatively light in the off-season, and companies are cautious about replenishing raw material stocks. At the same time, the impact of external macro-level uncertainty still exists, but the market sensitivity has eased compared with the previous period. From the fundamentals, cotton prices may continue to fluctuate in the off-season atmosphere, and pay attention to the USDA monthly report.

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