According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, stainless steel prices fell slightly last week. As of May 9, the average daily price of spot 304/2B stainless steel flat plate 1.0*1219*2438 (tolerance 0.91) was 12064.29 RMB/ton, down 0.06% from the beginning of last week and down 8.06% year-on-year.
According to the SunSirs price difference analysis tool, nickel and stainless steel prices are basically similar, but both have fallen slightly recently.
Last week, the total inventory of stainless steel was 111.3 tons, up 2.83% from last week, among which the inventory of hot and cold rolled products increased.
In terms of macroeconomics, the tariff issue has faded recently, and the market has remained on the sidelines of the negotiations between the United States and all parties. There are still uncertainties in the policy, but the sentiment has basically been restored.
Raw materials: Some mines in the Philippines have sold their June resources, and the transaction was completed at 1.4% FOB43; the domestic trade base price of Indonesia's second-phase nickel ore in May is expected to rise, and the supply of nickel ore is still tight under the influence of the rainy season. The Indonesian government's new tax policy has been implemented, and the royalties for nickel products have increased the tax on nickel metal by 1.5%. The price of nickel iron has loosened, and the price of iron has fallen under pressure. The latest mainstream steel mills are 940 RMB/nickel (tax included at the factory), and iron mills have suspended quotations.
Supply side: In May, 43 domestic stainless steel mills are expected to produce 3.4899 million tons of crude steel, a decrease of 0.4% month-on-month and an increase of 5.8% year-on-year; of which 300 series are 1.776 million tons, a decrease of 2.6% month-on-month and an increase of 7.5% year-on-year. In April, the output of crude stainless steel was 3.5025 million tons, and the output of 300 series was 1.8243 million tons.
Demand side: Demand has a certain resilience but is still recovering slowly. The recovery of manufacturing orders is slow, and procurement is mainly based on rigid demand to replenish inventory.
Domestic steel mills have some maintenance and production cuts, but the intensity is insufficient. Stainless steel production remains high. Steel mills continue to arrive after the holiday, and the oversupply pattern has intensified. The mine side has some support for prices, the price of raw material nickel iron has loosened, the short-term supply and demand contradiction has expanded, and the inventory pressure has eased slightly. The short-term macro sentiment has recovered but there is still uncertainty. The arrival of goods increased after the May Day holiday, downstream procurement was conservative, and there was also some pressure on the fundamentals. It is expected that stainless steel will fluctuate weakly.
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