Market summary: Before and after the May Day holiday, the local supply reduction in the domestic vinyl cyanide market caused the market to show a period of weak balance. The cost pressure continued to exist, and the suppliers maintained their prices, and the overall market stalemate. As of May 9, the mainstream negotiation for self-pickup from the East China port was maintained at 8100-8300 RMB/ton, and the negotiation for short-distance delivery in the Shandong market was maintained at around 7900-8100 RMB/ton.

Supply reduction: On the one hand, the planned maintenance or load reduction of the northern units: Jilin Petrochemical's 106,000 tons/year unit was shut down for maintenance on May 8 until the end of the month; Liaoning Jinfa Technology's 260,000 tons/year unit has been shut down for maintenance, and the contradiction between supply and demand has improved. The supply in the East China region has increased this month: Zhejiang Petrochemical's 520,000 tons of vinyl cyanide unit has resumed 95% load operation; Anqing Petrochemical's 80,000 tons/year production line was restarted this week, but inventory is controllable in the short term.

According to statistics, as of May 8, the average capacity utilization rate of the domestic vinyl cyanide industry reached 74.37%, down 2.49% from the same period last week.

Inventory decline: According to statistics, as of May 7, the inventory of domestic vinyl cyanide factories was 47,000 tons, down 3,000 tons from the previous week.

Demand is flat: The capacity utilization rates of major downstream industries of vinyl cyanide vary, among which the capacity utilization rate of ABS is 69.00%, an increase of 1.86% from the previous week, and demand fluctuations are not obvious.

Cost increase: Before and after the May Day holiday, the overall price of Shandong propylene market rose, and the mainstream price was around 6,650 RMB/ton, up about 1.3% from before the holiday. At present, there is no obvious fluctuation in the device surface, and the overall inventory of enterprises is low, which still supports the price trend. It is expected that the short-term propylene market price will remain strong.

Market forecast: The overall supply is still sufficient and the demand fluctuations are not obvious. In the long run, considering the gradual release of new production capacity, the pressure of supply and demand contradictions will continue to exist. However, the industry inventory is controllable in the short term, and suppliers may continue to maintain prices under cost support. However, the fundamentals remain weak, and the market lacks effective rebound momentum. The overall situation is temporarily stable.

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