According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of locally refined gasoline and diesel in Shandong Province slightly declined in early May. As of the 9th, the domestic price of 92# gasoline was 7,540.5 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.73%; The domestic price of 0# diesel is 6,440.67 RMB/ton, with a price trend decline of 1.23%.

Cost aspect: Crude oil market volatility, weak cost support

In early May, the international oil price market was mainly volatile. As of the 8th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $59.91 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $62.84 per barrel. During the May Day holiday, international oil prices fell sharply, mainly due to OPEC+ increasing production beyond expectations, which was negative for international oil prices and led to a significant decline in the crude oil market. After May Day, with the increasing oil restrictions imposed by the United States on a certain country, as well as the conflict between Palestine and Israel, and the intention of China and the United States to negotiate, the trend of international oil prices has risen. Overall, in early May, international oil prices remained low and fluctuated, with weak support for crude oil and sluggish domestic gasoline and diesel prices.

Supply side: Shandong's local refining operation is still open, and the supply side is loose

Last week, there was little change in the operating rate of the main refineries, and the supply of resources was relatively normal. The average operating rate of Shandong's local refineries was around 52%, and the supply of imported raw materials was basically normalized, with fluctuating raw material costs being the main factor. The operating rate of domestic main refineries remained at a high level, and the supply of domestic refined oil products to Chong'an Group led to a slight decline in the local refinery gasoline and diesel market.

Demand side: The demand situation generally shows a downward trend in the market trend

In terms of gasoline, there has been an increase in activities such as residents' travel during the May Day holiday. Guided by this news, businesses have stocked up in moderation before the holiday, but there is limited follow-up on demand after the holiday. In addition, considering inventory levels, the cooling of transactions has suppressed oil prices, and the continuous penetration of new energy vehicles has had a certain impact on gasoline demand. Overall, the gasoline market has slightly declined. In terms of diesel, due to the lack of obvious positive market conditions, terminal demand has remained stable. Some manufacturers have tentatively reduced their diesel prices for promotion before the holiday. In addition, the slowdown in manufacturing activities may inhibit the seasonal recovery of diesel consumption. Some sea areas have entered a fishing ban period, and diesel demand has not shown a significant improvement, resulting in a slight decline in the diesel market trend.

Market forecast: Supported by recent positive news, international oil prices are expected to rise in the short term, providing some support for the domestic refined oil market. From a domestic perspective, the operating rate of refineries has declined in the short term, and the supply of refined oil has decreased. However, the demand for gasoline is generally average, and the gasoline market prices are mainly fluctuating; There is still support for diesel demand, and diesel prices may rise slightly in the later stage.

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