SunSirs: Supply and Demand are Weak, the Price Trend of Local Refined Gasoline and Diesel is Weak in China

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the domestic refined gasoline and diesel prices have been weak recently. As of the 23rd, the domestic 92# gasoline price was 8,565.6 RMB/ton, with a weekly price decline of 0.72%; The domestic price of 0# diesel is 7,230.6 RMB/ton, with a weekly decrease of 0.04%.

Cost side: weak demand and increased inventory, crude oil pressure and decline

As of the 22nd, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was reported at $77.57 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was reported at $81.90 per barrel. Recently, the crude oil market has fluctuated and fallen, and cost prices have fallen, which has had a certain negative impact on the domestic gasoline and diesel refining market. The decline in the crude oil market is due to increased concerns about the economic and demand prospects, leading to a decline in international oil prices. On the other hand, a report released by the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) on Wednesday showed that US crude oil and distillate inventories increased last week, with US crude oil inventories increasing by 1.8 million barrels to 458.8 million barrels. As a result, the international oil price trend has declined, and costs are facing weakened support from the domestic refined oil market.

Supply side: Partial device load reduction and refinery operation decline

Recently, the maintenance equipment in Shandong has reduced production load, resulting in a decrease in the operating rate of Shandong local refineries. The average operating rate of Shandong local refineries has declined to around 55%, severely squeezing domestic refining profits, resulting in a significant decrease in profitability and a significant decrease in refinery operating enthusiasm. The supply of refined oil has decreased, and the local refined gasoline and diesel market is weak and volatile.

Demand side: Weak demand, declining gasoline and diesel market

In terms of gasoline, residents' travel has returned to normal, purchasing sentiment is not high, and the gasoline market has slightly declined. In terms of diesel, there is insufficient follow-up on downstream demand, and there is little change in the operating rate of outdoor projects. Logistics and transportation are relatively normal, but there is no significant improvement in diesel demand, and diesel prices have slightly decreased. In addition, due to poor gasoline demand in the Asian region, China's gasoline exports in April fell to the lowest point in two years. In April, China's gasoline exports reached 484800 tons, a decrease of 64.86% month on month and 50.73% year-on-year. The decrease in export volume is also one of the negative factors in the domestic refined oil market.

Currently, geopolitical instability still has a certain positive impact on oil prices. The peak driving season in North America will stimulate gasoline demand, but the current weak demand expectations in Asia, coupled with an increase in US crude oil inventories, are bearish for the crude oil market. Overall, crude oil prices are mainly volatile. From a domestic perspective, the short-term operating rate of refineries still shows a downward trend, with residents returning to normal in terms of travel. However, there has been an increase in fuel consumption due to rising temperatures. Overall, the favorable support for gasoline is insufficient, and there is still room for a slight decline in the gasoline market in the later stage; The demand for diesel has not changed much, and the supply is sufficient. The diesel market has slightly declined, but diesel profits are limited, which will limit the decline in diesel.

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