The window for this round of domestic oil product price adjustment opened at 24:00 on May 15. The retail price of this round of oil product is about to be lowered. In 2024, the retail price has experienced five increases, two decreases and two strandings. During the cycle, the crude oil market fell, and the negative change rate increased. The retail price adjustment of oil product in 2024 will encounter the "third" reduction.
Entering this round of pricing cycle, the trend of international oil prices declined. As of the 14th, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $78.02/barrel, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was $82.38/barrel. At the beginning of this cycle, the crude oil price fell sharply during the May Day holiday, and the crude oil rebound after the holiday was not large. On the whole, the crude oil market declined during the cycle, mainly because the ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas eased the geopolitical tensions and the risk premium fell. On the one hand, the risk of conflict in the Middle East has been reduced, and the good supply of international oil prices has dissipated, stabilizing the crude oil risk premium to a certain extent. On the other hand, the signals released by the Federal Reserve to the market made investors generally worried that the cycle of interest rate reduction might not come so soon, and the concern about the prospect of crude oil demand led to the decline of crude oil prices. As of the 15th, the change rate of crude oil varieties on the 10th working day was -4.85%, corresponding to a decrease of 235 RMB/ton for gasoline, 225 RMB/ton for diesel, 0.18 RMB for 92# gasoline, 0.19 RMB for 95# gasoline, and 0.19 RMB for 0# diesel. The retail price of refined oil in this round is about to "fall for the third time".
Gasoline: Recently, the maintenance units in Shandong have been restarted, and the start-up rate of Shandong local refinery has increased. The average start-up of Shandong local refinery has risen to about 60.5%. However, there are still units with maintenance plans in the middle and late May. In addition, the refining profits still affect the enthusiasm of refinery production, and the operating load of local refineries remains low. Recently, the demand for gasoline is general. The middlemen replenish the inventory according to demand. The purchasing sentiment is not high, and the gasoline market is slightly lower.
Diesel: on the one hand, the price trend of cost crude oil has declined slightly, which has a certain negative impact on the diesel market; On the other hand, there is little change in supply and demand. The supply of domestic refined oil has risen slightly, the downstream demand side has not followed up enough, the operating rate of outdoor projects has not changed much, the logistics and transportation are relatively normal, the demand for diesel has not improved significantly, and the diesel market has fluctuated and declined.
In the future, the instability of the current situation in the Middle East is still good for oil prices, which will keep oil prices at a high level, and the resistance to sharp decline in the future is still heavy. In addition, the peak driving season in North America will stimulate gasoline demand, and the decline of crude oil inventory and refined oil inventory in the United States will also support oil prices, so it is unlikely that the oil market will continue to decline. In China, it is difficult to increase the operating rate of refineries in the short term, and the travel of residents has returned to normal, but the use of oil has increased with the rise of temperature. On the whole, the positive support of gasoline is insufficient, and there is room for a slight decline in the gasoline market in the later period; The supply and demand of diesel market has not changed much, but the wholesale price of diesel is low, and the profit of refineries is limited. There is no lack of a slight upward trend in the later period.
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