According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the spot price of natural rubber in China slightly declined last week. As of March 31, the spot rubber market in China was around 13,840 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.36% compared to March 25, which was around 13,890 RMB/ton.

Recently, the natural rubber market has been volatile, with Shanghai Rubber 05 contract fluctuating between around 14,200 RMB/ton and 14,400 RMB/ton. Currently, Thailand imports latex barrels at around 14,300-14,400 RMB/ton, bulk at around 12,700-12,800 RMB/ton, Vietnam imports latex bulk at around 11,800-11,900 RMB/ton, and domestically produced latex bulk at around 11,600 RMB/ton.

Cost side: Currently, many raw material production areas in Thailand have stopped cutting, and these areas are about to enter a shutdown period. As of March 29th, the price of Thai adhesive is 77 Thai baht/kg, with fluctuating prices; Vietnam's production areas are still in a period of no harvest; China is still in a period of cutting cessation, and Yunnan region has started trial cutting. The market supply continues to decline, but the overall high prices of raw materials have fallen, providing weak support for the natural rubber market.

On the demand side: Downstream tire production is at a high level, with an increase in demand. As of March 29th, the operating load of domestic tire enterprises for semi steel tires is around 80%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region exceeds 70%; Overall, there is some support for natural rubber in terms of supply and demand, but currently the natural rubber market is still at a high level. Tire companies are resistant to high prices and are cautious in procurement, with a focus on just in need.

Inventory: As of March 29th, the natural rubber inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange was 216,941 tons, a decrease of 250 tons; Futures inventory increased by 830 tons to 211,960. As of March 24, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao Bonded and General Trade in Qingdao area was 668,000 tons, an increase of 11,800 tons or 1.80% compared to the previous period. Recently, there has been an increase in the arrival of natural rubber at ports, coupled with a slight decrease in the outbound rate, resulting in a continued slight increase in port inventories.

Currently, the supply side of Thailand's raw material production areas is about to stop cutting, but the domestic raw material production areas are growing well and are about to start cutting. It is expected that the market supply of raw materials may increase; At present, the operating rate of downstream tire factories on the demand side is high, and enterprises are actively scheduling production. However, the price of natural rubber is still high, and tire companies have a cautious purchasing mentality; In addition, there has been a slight increase in natural rubber port inventory. It is expected that the natural rubber spot market will mainly consolidate in the near future.

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