The current domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on January 31, and the retail price of refined oil may increase. The retail price in 2024 has gone through one increase and one decrease, and the crude oil market trend has risen during the cycle, with a positive rate of change. The retail price of refined oil in 2024 will face a "second increase".
Entering this pricing cycle, international oil prices have risen. As of the 30th, the settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $77.82 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $82.50 per barrel. On the one hand, the geopolitical situation has been disrupted, and the instability of the Middle East situation still exists. The market is concerned about supply issues, and crude oil prices are supported and rising. On the other hand, the North Dakota Pipeline Authority announced on Friday that about 30% of North Dakota's oil production is still closed due to extreme cold weather and operational challenges. In addition, the reduction of finished oil inventories in the United States, the approaching Chinese New Year, and strong demand during the holiday will boost the demand for crude oil. The combination of multiple positive factors has led to a significant increase in crude oil prices during the cycle. As of the 31st, the change rate of crude oil varieties on the 10th working day was 3.23%. It is expected that each ton of gasoline will increase by 200 RMB, and diesel will increase by 200 RMB. The discounted will be 92# 0.16 RMB per liter, 95# 0.17 RMB per liter, and 0# 0.17 RMB per liter.
In terms of gasoline: Recently, the operating rate of Shandong refining has slightly increased. With the issuance of quotas, the shortage of raw materials in some refineries has eased. Overall, the operating rate of Shandong refining under atmospheric and vacuum conditions has increased, and the operating rate of Shandong refining has risen to around 69%; There has been little change in the operation of domestic main refineries, with a slight increase in the supply of refining in Shandong. As the Spring Festival travel season gradually begins, some merchants have increased their stocking, resulting in an increase in the procurement of refined oil products and strong demand, leading to an upward trend in gasoline market prices.
In terms of diesel: The supply of diesel has slightly increased, coupled with the rising trend of crude oil prices on the cost side, there is no actual positive effect on diesel supply. In addition, with the impact of low temperature, rain and snow weather, diesel demand in the infrastructure industry has gradually weakened, and outdoor infrastructure and engineering construction have declined. However, some logistics transportation is in the final stocking stage before the year, and logistics demand has slightly increased, leading to a slight increase in the diesel market.
Looking at the future: Currently, there is still a long short game for crude oil, and there is pressure on global crude oil supply; However, geopolitical tensions pose certain risks to supply, especially the expectation of short-term supply disruptions that will raise the risk premium of crude oil. Overall, the range of crude oil is mainly volatile. In terms of domestic supply, refineries in Shandong may slightly increase their production, and businesses are increasing their stocking during the Spring Festival travel season. It is expected that the prices of gasoline and diesel will rise slightly in the short term.
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